TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100656
Played Sep 9Finished
Serhii Semenets
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117911115114––
Mykhailo Khalenko
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:22 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Khalenko to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Semenets above · Mykhailo Khalenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 69 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Mykhailo Khalenko at 56.6%
69 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Semenets 25–21 Mykhailo Khalenko Mykhailo Khalenko has won 21 of their 46 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:22What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Khalenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-21 in 46
Semenets
Correct
gap of 4 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Semenets 1270 vs Khalenko 1278
Khalenko
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Semenets 80% vs Khalenko 60%
Semenets
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Semenets 60% vs Khalenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Semenets +1 · Khalenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Khalenko) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semenets form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSemenets 2.25 / Khalenko 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Khalenko)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13100656
Semenets2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 51 of 141
Down 0–1, comes back21% 17 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 50
Khalenko1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite78% won 47 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it100% 25 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it97% 35 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSemenets3wins
AwayKhalenko7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKhalenko leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSemenets75%3 of 4
AwayKhalenko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Semenets4Khalenko6n = 10Khalenko took 6 of 10
S2Semenets4Khalenko6n = 10Khalenko took 6 of 10
S3Semenets8Khalenko2n = 10Semenets took 8 of 10
S4Semenets0Khalenko8n = 8Khalenko took 8 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSemenetsKhalenkoS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.339.3−4.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSemenetsKhalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime419 / 834 vs 185 / 36550.2%50.7%419 / 834 vs 185 / 365Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhalenkoSemenets 2.25/Khalenko 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Khalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Semenets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 19:00S. Semenets—811891M. Khalenko—11511113
LSep 3 · 10:35S. Semenets—512761M. Khalenko—111011113
LAug 24 · 10:35S. Semenets—11911052M. Khalenko—911811113
LAug 18 · 09:59S. Semenets—891161M. Khalenko—11118113
WAug 16 · 10:35S. Semenets—1111113M. Khalenko—7790
LJul 28 · 10:00S. Semenets—871161M. Khalenko—11116113
LJul 22 · 12:30S. Semenets—71211101M. Khalenko—11149123
WJul 11 · 10:00S. Semenets—124117123M. Khalenko—1011811102
WJul 8 · 17:30S. Semenets—1111123M. Khalenko—68100
LJul 5 · 07:50S. Semenets—671181M. Khalenko—11116113
S. Semenets10
WSep 9 · 07:35S. Hovorunets1.9181950S. Semenets1.801121113LSep 9 · 06:05S. Semenets2.7511381152O. Mytsyk1.40311116113WSep 8 · 19:00S. Hovorunets1.6710420S. Semenets2.101211113WSep 8 · 17:30S. Semenets1.91119911113Y. Korotin1.8051111692WSep 8 · 15:30V. Varchenko2.638117101S. Semenets1.4411911123LSep 8 · 13:30V. Mukhin1.5011711113S. Semenets2.50911891WSep 8 · 12:30V. Stukalov1.739950S. Semenets2.001111113LSep 7 · 12:50V. Melnykov1.401116113S. Semenets2.7551450LSep 7 · 11:20S. Semenets3.258990M. Stetsenko1.331111113WSep 7 · 09:20O. Mytsyk1.30111196102S. Semenets3.40841111123
M. Khalenko10
LSep 9 · 06:35V. Mukhin2.10311411113M. Khalenko1.6711711972LSep 9 · 05:35S. Hovorunets2.00741111123M. Khalenko1.73111199102WSep 4 · 19:00S. Semenets2.25811891M. Khalenko1.5711511113WSep 4 · 17:30M. Khalenko2.1091111113D. Khavanskyi1.67116931WSep 4 · 15:30S. Yakimenko1.8311611552M. Khalenko1.83711911113LSep 4 · 13:30V. Mukhin2.3811147113M. Khalenko1.535121151LSep 4 · 12:30Y. Korotin1.831111113M. Khalenko1.835690WSep 3 · 11:35V. Stukalov2.0011911492M. Khalenko1.73111911113WSep 3 · 10:35S. Semenets2.20512761M. Khalenko1.61111011113LSep 3 · 09:05V. Korniichuk1.281111113M. Khalenko3.509970
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