TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100515
Played Sep 9Finished
Serhii Semenets
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
113311811116511
Oleksandr Mytsyk
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:50 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Mytsyk to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Semenets above · Oleksandr Mytsyk below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 80 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Oleksandr Mytsyk at 66.3%
80 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Semenets 2–4 Oleksandr Mytsyk Serhii Semenets has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:50What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Mytsyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Mytsyk
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Semenets 1253 vs Mytsyk 1308
Mytsyk
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Semenets 80% vs Mytsyk 40%
Semenets
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Semenets 50% vs Mytsyk 30%
Semenets
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Semenets +3 · Mytsyk -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Mytsyk) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mytsyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSemenets 2.75 / Mytsyk 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 68%
Edge (Mytsyk)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13100515
Semenets2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 51 of 141
Down 0–1, comes back21% 17 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 50
Mytsyk1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 168 of 311
Up 2–0, closes it88% 82 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it77% 126 of 163
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSemenets2wins
AwayMytsyk4wins
3 of 6 to a deciderMytsyk leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSemenets33.3%1 of 3
AwayMytsyk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Semenets3Mytsyk3n = 6split evenly
S2Semenets0Mytsyk6n = 6Mytsyk took 6 of 6
S3Semenets4Mytsyk2n = 6Semenets took 4 of 6
S4Semenets2Mytsyk4n = 6Mytsyk took 4 of 6
S5Semenets2Mytsyk1n = 3Semenets took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricSemenetsMytsykS − MBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match36.844.5−7.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSemenetsMytsykBasisWin rate · lifetime418 / 833 vs 530 / 106950.2%49.6%418 / 833 vs 530 / 1069Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MytsykSemenets 2.75/Mytsyk 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.5%
Mytsyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mytsyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 9 · 06:05S. Semenets—11381152O. Mytsyk—311116113
WSep 7 · 09:20S. Semenets—841111123O. Mytsyk—111196102
WAug 24 · 12:05S. Semenets—116143123O. Mytsyk—8111211102
LAug 8 · 11:30S. Semenets—871161O. Mytsyk—11118113
LAug 6 · 06:30S. Semenets—8101151O. Mytsyk—11129113
LNov 11 · 12:30S. Semenets—115451O. Mytsyk—91111113
S. Semenets10
WSep 8 · 19:00S. Hovorunets1.6710420S. Semenets2.101211113WSep 8 · 17:30S. Semenets1.91119911113Y. Korotin1.8051111692WSep 8 · 15:30V. Varchenko2.638117101S. Semenets1.4411911123LSep 8 · 13:30V. Mukhin1.5011711113S. Semenets2.50911891WSep 8 · 12:30V. Stukalov1.739950S. Semenets2.001111113LSep 7 · 12:50V. Melnykov1.401116113S. Semenets2.7551450LSep 7 · 11:20S. Semenets3.258990M. Stetsenko1.331111113WSep 7 · 09:20O. Mytsyk1.30111196102S. Semenets3.40841111123LSep 7 · 07:20V. Korniichuk1.53111011113S. Semenets2.38912471LSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930
O. Mytsyk10
LSep 7 · 12:20O. Mytsyk2.6311115692M. Stetsenko1.44771111113LSep 7 · 10:20V. Korniichuk2.101013711113O. Mytsyk1.67121111992LSep 7 · 09:20O. Mytsyk1.30111196102S. Semenets3.40841111123WSep 7 · 08:20V. Stukalov2.5012119792O. Mytsyk1.501061111113WSep 7 · 06:50O. Mytsyk1.67212713123V. Melnykov2.1011101111102LSep 4 · 12:05A. Kovalenko1.5711611113O. Mytsyk2.25511541LSep 4 · 10:35O. Mytsyk1.91119881E. Populovskyi1.8091111113WSep 4 · 08:35V. Melnykov2.25111410482O. Mytsyk1.579121211113LSep 4 · 06:35M. Stetsenko1.4411714113O. Mytsyk2.636111241LSep 4 · 05:35K. Klymenko1.611111113O. Mytsyk2.209870
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