TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094631
Played Sep 8Finished
Serhii Semenets
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115911911116119
Yevhenii Korotin
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Semenets to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Semenets above · Yevhenii Korotin below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 93 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Serhii Semenets at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Semenets 9–4 Yevhenii Korotin Yevhenii Korotin has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:48What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Korotin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-4 in 13
Semenets
Correct
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Semenets 1233 vs Korotin 1279
Korotin
Wrong
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Semenets 40% vs Korotin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Semenets 40% vs Korotin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Semenets +1 · Korotin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Semenets)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Korotin form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSemenets 1.91 / Korotin 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Semenets)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13094631
Semenets1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 48 of 139
Down 0–1, comes back21% 17 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 51
Korotin1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite72% won 18 of 25
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSemenets8wins
AwayKorotin2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSemenets leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSemenets100%5 of 5
AwayKorotin40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Semenets5Korotin5n = 10split evenly
S2Semenets7Korotin3n = 10Semenets took 7 of 10
S3Semenets6Korotin4n = 10Semenets took 6 of 10
S4Semenets7Korotin2n = 9Semenets took 7 of 9
S5Semenets2Korotin1n = 3Semenets took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSemenetsKorotinS − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.736.9+5.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSemenetsKorotinBasisWin rate · lifetime416 / 830 vs 98 / 20150.1%48.8%416 / 830 vs 98 / 201Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemenetsSemenets 1.91/Korotin 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Semenets · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Semenets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 12:05S. Semenets—1191351Y. Korotin—131111113
LAug 5 · 12:30S. Semenets—71161192Y. Korotin—119115113
WApr 28 · 14:40S. Semenets—9111311113Y. Korotin—11915962
WApr 14 · 11:30S. Semenets—1110117113Y. Korotin—51281152
WSep 23 · 13:10S. Semenets—11139113Y. Korotin—9111151
WJul 1 · 14:10S. Semenets—11116113Y. Korotin—831161
WJun 17 · 14:10S. Semenets—81111103Y. Korotin—112891
WJun 10 · 12:10S. Semenets—12611113Y. Korotin—1011891
WMay 27 · 17:10S. Semenets—1111113Y. Korotin—6920
WMay 20 · 15:10S. Semenets—101112113Y. Korotin—1291051
S. Semenets10
WSep 8 · 19:00S. Hovorunets1.6710420S. Semenets2.101211113WSep 8 · 15:30V. Varchenko2.638117101S. Semenets1.4411911123LSep 8 · 13:30V. Mukhin1.5011711113S. Semenets2.50911891WSep 8 · 12:30V. Stukalov1.739950S. Semenets2.001111113LSep 7 · 12:50V. Melnykov1.401116113S. Semenets2.7551450LSep 7 · 11:20S. Semenets3.258990M. Stetsenko1.331111113WSep 7 · 09:20O. Mytsyk1.30111196102S. Semenets3.40841111123LSep 7 · 07:20V. Korniichuk1.53111011113S. Semenets2.38912471LSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112
Y. Korotin10
WSep 8 · 18:30V. Varchenko2.20117114102Y. Korotin1.61511611123WSep 8 · 16:00V. Stukalov1.671111511102Y. Korotin2.10661113123LSep 8 · 14:00S. Hovorunets1.571111113Y. Korotin2.253640LSep 8 · 12:00V. Mukhin2.25916116113Y. Korotin1.57111431182WSep 4 · 18:00V. Mukhin2.6311119342Y. Korotin1.44981111113LSep 4 · 17:00Y. Korotin1.91100S. Semenets1.80121LSep 4 · 16:00Y. Korotin2.253980D. Khavanskyi1.571111113WSep 4 · 14:30Y. Korotin3.50911811113S. Yakimenko1.2811911772WSep 4 · 12:30Y. Korotin1.831111113M. Khalenko1.835690LAug 30 · 16:40Y. Korotin1.917390V. Stukalov1.801111113
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