TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136673
Played Sep 16Finished
Vladyslav Stukalov
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116119711119––
Serhii Hovorunets
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:04 and never touched — 71.2% is still 71.2%
Graded at full timeSerhii Hovorunets to win
71.2%
71.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladyslav Stukalov above · Serhii Hovorunets below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 75 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Serhii Hovorunets at 71.2%
75 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Stukalov 9–24 Serhii Hovorunets Vladyslav Stukalov has won 9 of their 33 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:04What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Hovorunets
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-24 in 33
Hovorunets
Wrong
gap of 15 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stukalov 1190 vs Hovorunets 1272
Hovorunets
Wrong
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stukalov 60% vs Hovorunets 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stukalov 40% vs Hovorunets 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stukalov +2 · Hovorunets -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Hovorunets)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hovorunets form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStukalov 3.00 / Hovorunets 1.36
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Hovorunets)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13136673
Stukalov3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 102 of 229
Down 0–1, comes back20% 26 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back10% 8 of 78
Hovorunets1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 49 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it77% 39 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStukalov5wins
AwayHovorunets5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStukalov100%4 of 4
AwayHovorunets83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stukalov4Hovorunets6n = 10Hovorunets took 6 of 10
S2Stukalov5Hovorunets5n = 10split evenly
S3Stukalov3Hovorunets7n = 10Hovorunets took 7 of 10
S4Stukalov3Hovorunets1n = 4Stukalov took 3 of 4
S5Stukalov2Hovorunets1n = 3Stukalov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricStukalovHovorunetsS − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.636.3−1.7per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStukalovHovorunetsBasisWin rate · lifetime417 / 827 vs 235 / 48250.4%48.8%417 / 827 vs 235 / 482Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HovorunetsStukalov 3.00/Hovorunets 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.2%
Hovorunets · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stukalov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 06:20V. Stukalov4011117113S. Hovorunets35691191
LSep 15 · 11:40V. Stukalov26412100S. Hovorunets371114123
LSep 8 · 17:00V. Stukalov199820S. Hovorunets331111113
WAug 19 · 11:00V. Stukalov331111113S. Hovorunets176920
LAug 18 · 05:28V. Stukalov197480S. Hovorunets331111113
WAug 5 · 14:00V. Stukalov50613128113S. Hovorunets521111101192
WAug 1 · 09:30V. Stukalov331111113S. Hovorunets219840
LJul 24 · 09:00V. Stukalov28131230S. Hovorunets401514113
WJul 8 · 09:00V. Stukalov54149911113S. Hovorunets49121111782
LJun 25 · 09:35V. Stukalov4461181182S. Hovorunets46116117113
V. Stukalov10
WSep 15 · 17:10V. Stukalov2.10118113163D. Khavanskyi1.67811911142WSep 15 · 15:10Y. Korotin1.911051171V. Stukalov1.8012117113LSep 15 · 14:10V. Stukalov1.8311611332S. Semenets1.83411611113WSep 15 · 13:10O. Miklukha2.209670V. Stukalov1.611111113LSep 15 · 11:40V. Stukalov2.63412100S. Hovorunets1.441114123LSep 13 · 11:05V. Stukalov1.8361170V. Varchenko1.831113113LSep 13 · 09:35V. Stukalov1.9111510V. Kucheriavyi1.801311113LSep 13 · 08:05V. Stukalov1.836850S. Semenets1.831111113LSep 13 · 06:35V. Stukalov2.209670M. Khalenko1.611111113WSep 13 · 05:05V. Stukalov2.50981111113D. Khavanskyi1.5011114592
S. Hovorunets10
WSep 16 · 07:20Y. Korotin2.2511391262S. Hovorunets1.578111110113LSep 15 · 17:40S. Hovorunets2.006860S. Semenets1.731111113WSep 15 · 15:40O. Miklukha3.25117111162S. Hovorunets1.33811139113LSep 15 · 13:40Y. Korotin2.75138911123S. Hovorunets1.401111118102WSep 15 · 12:40S. Hovorunets1.611111113D. Khavanskyi2.208680WSep 15 · 11:40V. Stukalov2.63412100S. Hovorunets1.441114123LSep 9 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.57119511113S. Hovorunets2.2591111632LSep 9 · 10:05S. Hovorunets2.009370O. Mytsyk1.731111113LSep 9 · 09:05S. Hovorunets1.6112611782D. Khavanskyi2.201011711113LSep 9 · 07:35S. Hovorunets1.9181950S. Semenets1.801121113
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