TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155546
Played Sep 19Finished
Vladyslav Stukalov
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181188111311––
Oleh Stopin
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:10 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeVladyslav Stukalov to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladyslav Stukalov above · Oleh Stopin below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 81 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Vladyslav Stukalov at 56.5%
81 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Stukalov 30–20 Oleh Stopin Oleh Stopin has won 20 of their 50 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:10What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Stukalov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-20 in 50
Stukalov
Correct
gap of 10 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stukalov 1192 vs Stopin 1224
Stopin
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stukalov 40% vs Stopin 60%
Stopin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stukalov 30% vs Stopin 60%
Stopin
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stukalov -1 · Stopin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Stukalov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stopin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStukalov 1.57 / Stopin 2.25
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Stukalov)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13155546
Stukalov1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 85 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it96% 44 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it78% 59 of 76
Stopin2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog24% won 14 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back16% 5 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStukalov6wins
AwayStopin4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStukalov leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStukalov50%2 of 4
AwayStopin33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stukalov4Stopin6n = 10Stopin took 6 of 10
S2Stukalov7Stopin3n = 10Stukalov took 7 of 10
S3Stukalov5Stopin5n = 10split evenly
S4Stukalov4Stopin4n = 8split evenly
S5Stukalov2Stopin1n = 3Stukalov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStukalovStopinStukalov − StopinBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.336.6+4.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStukalovStopinBasisWin rate · lifetime414 / 827 vs 147 / 27750.1%53.1%414 / 827 vs 147 / 277Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StukalovStukalov 1.57/Stopin 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Stukalov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stukalov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 07:35V. Stukalov36117991O. Stopin3741111113
LAug 29 · 08:20V. Stukalov34913120O. Stopin401115143
WAug 26 · 07:00V. Stukalov331111113O. Stopin175750
WJul 26 · 16:40V. Stukalov4791116113O. Stopin411191471
WJun 27 · 10:30V. Stukalov47611127113O. Stopin45118101152
WApr 26 · 11:05V. Stukalov46111410113O. Stopin345121251
WMar 22 · 12:40V. Stukalov4181111113O. Stopin28112691
LMar 13 · 08:00V. Stukalov44111156112O. Stopin49771111133
LMar 8 · 14:10V. Stukalov366118111O. Stopin3811311133
WMar 1 · 14:10V. Stukalov49971111113O. Stopin3711116362
V. Stukalov10
LSep 19 · 08:50V. Stukalov2.251110471V. Kucheriavyi1.5781211113WSep 19 · 07:20V. Stukalov2.38116913113V. Varchenko1.53911111152WSep 19 · 05:50V. Stukalov1.911111133D. Khavanskyi1.8085110LSep 18 · 11:35V. Stukalov3.25111261192V. Korniichuk1.331310115113LSep 18 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.281111113V. Stukalov3.503980LSep 18 · 08:35V. Stukalov1.9112118642S. Semenets1.801061111113LSep 18 · 07:35K. Klymenko1.57101112113V. Stukalov2.251271031LSep 18 · 06:05V. Stukalov2.507740O. Mytsyk1.501111113LSep 16 · 10:50V. Stukalov1.83117761S. Semenets1.8331111113WSep 16 · 09:50V. Stukalov2.101113113D. Khavanskyi1.6751140
O. Stopin10
WSep 19 · 09:20O. Stopin1.831111113V. Varchenko1.836880LSep 19 · 08:20V. Mykhalchenko3.001111113O. Stopin1.364580WSep 19 · 06:50O. Stopin2.631211113V. Kucheriavyi1.4410680WSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112LSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:35O. Stopin2.2081211113V. Varchenko1.611110821WSep 5 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.53117991O. Stopin2.3841111113WSep 5 · 06:05O. Stopin3.251181216113V. Kucheriavyi1.33911101852LAug 29 · 11:50V. Mukhin1.221111113O. Stopin4.009440LAug 29 · 10:50O. Stopin1.83691141S. Semenets1.8311116113
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