TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13156153
Played Sep 19Finished
Oleh Stopin
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210116118––––
Vadym Kucheriavyi
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:50 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeVadym Kucheriavyi to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleh Stopin above · Vadym Kucheriavyi below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 58 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Vadym Kucheriavyi at 61.7%
58 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Stopin 2–3 Vadym Kucheriavyi Oleh Stopin has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:50What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kucheriavyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stopin 1228 vs Kucheriavyi 1200
Stopin
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stopin 80% vs Kucheriavyi 40%
Stopin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stopin 70% vs Kucheriavyi 40%
Stopin
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stopin +1 · Kucheriavyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Kucheriavyi) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kucheriavyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStopin 2.63 / Kucheriavyi 1.44
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Kucheriavyi)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13156153
Stopin2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog24% won 14 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back16% 5 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Kucheriavyi1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite46% won 25 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it64% 14 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeStopin2wins
AwayKucheriavyi3wins
3 of 5 to a deciderKucheriavyi leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStopin40%2 of 5
AwayKucheriavyin = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stopin5Kucheriavyi0n = 5Stopin took 5 of 5
S2Stopin2Kucheriavyi3n = 5Kucheriavyi took 3 of 5
S3Stopin2Kucheriavyi3n = 5Kucheriavyi took 3 of 5
S4Stopin1Kucheriavyi3n = 4Kucheriavyi took 3 of 4
S5Stopin1Kucheriavyi2n = 3Kucheriavyi took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricStopinKucheriavyiS − KBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set50+5of 5Avg pointsper match41.241.6−0.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStopinKucheriavyiBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 275 vs 47 / 11653.1%40.5%146 / 275 vs 47 / 116Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.935.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KucheriavyiStopin 2.63/Kucheriavyi 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Kucheriavyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stopin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 19 · 06:50O. Stopin341211113V. Kucheriavyi2410680
WSep 5 · 06:05O. Stopin581181216113V. Kucheriavyi53911101852
LAug 16 · 07:35O. Stopin4511951192V. Kucheriavyi46611117113
LJul 26 · 13:10O. Stopin27115651V. Kucheriavyi3851111113
LJun 27 · 07:00O. Stopin4211116862V. Kucheriavyi47951111113
O. Stopin10
WSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112LSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:35O. Stopin2.2081211113V. Varchenko1.611110821WSep 5 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.53117991O. Stopin2.3841111113WSep 5 · 06:05O. Stopin3.251181216113V. Kucheriavyi1.33911101852LAug 29 · 11:50V. Mukhin1.221111113O. Stopin4.009440LAug 29 · 10:50O. Stopin1.83691141S. Semenets1.8311116113WAug 29 · 09:50O. Stopin1.281111113O. Ponomarenko3.506830WAug 29 · 08:20O. Stopin2.251115143V. Stukalov1.57913120WAug 29 · 06:20O. Stopin2.5014118113D. Khavanskyi1.501271171
V. Kucheriavyi10
LSep 19 · 07:50V. Kucheriavyi1.4464110D. Khavanskyi2.631111133WSep 13 · 11:35V. Kucheriavyi1.441211113D. Khavanskyi2.6310830WSep 13 · 09:35V. Stukalov1.9111510V. Kucheriavyi1.801311113LSep 13 · 08:35V. Kucheriavyi1.61861141M. Khalenko2.2011119113LSep 13 · 07:35V. Varchenko2.381191311113V. Kucheriavyi1.53411111382LSep 13 · 06:05V. Kucheriavyi2.001061191S. Semenets1.7312119113WSep 5 · 12:05V. Kucheriavyi1.61411411123V. Varchenko2.20119118102WSep 5 · 10:05V. Stukalov1.8312711692V. Kucheriavyi1.831011511113LSep 5 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.571112113V. Kucheriavyi2.2561020LSep 5 · 06:05O. Stopin3.251181216113V. Kucheriavyi1.33911101852
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