Daniel Kouble vs Jan Trefny 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProMatch #13154394

Played Sep 19Finished

Daniel Kouble

Home

1.67

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

1196111151311––

Jan Trefny

Away

2.10

At publish

Won last 4

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 4

The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Daniel Kouble to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingDaniel Kouble above · Jan Trefny below

Set 1 · 11-9

Set 2 · 6-11

Set 3 · 11-5

Set 4 · 13-11

Point 77 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Daniel Kouble at 54.0%

77 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 15:52

What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Kouble

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Kouble 1502 vs Trefny 1645

Trefny

Wrong

both rated, 143 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Kouble 40% vs Trefny 80%

Trefny

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Kouble 40% vs Trefny 60%

Trefny

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Kouble -1 · Trefny +4

Trefny

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kouble)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Trefny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKouble 1.67 / Trefny 2.10

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Trefny)+1.8pp

Czech Liga Pro · #13154394

Kouble1.67

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 10 days ago (Sep 10) · back after a break

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite52% won 14 of 27

Up 2–0, closes it86% 6 of 7

Up 1–0, closes it60% 9 of 15

Trefny2.10

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 4

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog48% won 25 of 52

Down 0–1, comes back24% 6 of 25

Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricKoubleTrefnyBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 225 vs 59 / 11647.1%50.9%106 / 225 vs 59 / 116Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.935.8per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Kouble

Kouble 1.67/Trefny 2.10

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Kouble · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Kouble won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

D. Kouble10