TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13154195
Played Sep 20Finished
Petr Budinsky
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181113119411811
Jan Trefny
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Budinsky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Budinsky above · Jan Trefny below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 97 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Petr Budinsky at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Petr Budinsky 0–1 Jan Trefny Petr Budinsky has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Trefny beat Budinsky 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:43What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Budinsky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Budinsky 1509 vs Trefny 1629
Trefny
Correct
both rated, 119 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Budinsky 40% vs Trefny 80%
Trefny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Budinsky 40% vs Trefny 60%
Trefny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Budinsky -1 · Trefny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Budinsky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trefny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBudinsky 1.61 / Trefny 2.20
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Trefny)+3.7pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13154195
Budinsky1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 23 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it64% 14 of 22
Trefny2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 25 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back24% 6 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeBudinsky0wins
AwayTrefny1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderTrefny leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricBudinskyTrefnyB − TBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match46.043.0+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBudinskyTrefnyBasisWin rate · lifetime80 / 162 vs 59 / 11749.4%50.4%80 / 162 vs 59 / 117Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.735.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BudinskyBudinsky 1.61/Trefny 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Budinsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Trefny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 19 · 14:00P. Budinsky4611129862J. Trefny430101111113
P. Budinsky10
LSep 19 · 23:00J. Prokupek2.501112113P. Budinsky1.5071060WSep 19 · 16:59P. Budinsky1.4091111123K. Novak2.751138101WSep 19 · 16:30P. Budinsky1.361111113K. Novak3.008750LSep 19 · 15:00P. Budinsky1.61415611112Y. Holovatiuk2.201113114133LSep 19 · 14:00J. Trefny2.100101111113P. Budinsky1.6711129862WSep 18 · 20:58P. Budinsky1.3611117113J. Dedek3.00831161LSep 18 · 20:00R. Pavelka2.50412118113P. Budinsky1.50111031172LSep 18 · 19:00J. Prokupek2.25881111113P. Budinsky1.5711117882WSep 18 · 18:30P. Budinsky1.441111113J. Dedek2.638950LAug 30 · 16:58D. Tuma1.5311116113P. Budinsky2.38801131
J. Trefny10
WSep 20 · 01:00J. Trefny1.9111116113R. Pavelka1.80481141LSep 19 · 22:30D. Kouble1.6711611133J. Trefny2.109115111WSep 19 · 17:32J. Trefny1.6720514113Y. Holovatiuk2.0918111291WSep 19 · 16:00J. Trefny1.801111113Y. Holovatiuk1.917780WSep 19 · 15:30K. Novak2.2559111282J. Trefny1.571111910113WSep 19 · 14:00J. Trefny2.100101111113P. Budinsky1.6711129862LSep 9 · 02:58J. Trefny1.80611791R. Pavelka1.9111411113LSep 9 · 01:30J. Trefny3.5011291152R. Krejci1.28711119113WSep 9 · 24:30V. Postelt2.00101190J. Trefny1.731213113LSep 8 · 23:30M. Vedmoch1.44111112113J. Trefny2.63761481
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