TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13153989
Played Sep 20Finished
Jan Trefny
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114118611114––
Radim Pavelka
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Trefny above · Radim Pavelka below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 66 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Radim Pavelka at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Jan Trefny 5–3 Radim Pavelka Radim Pavelka has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:14What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pavelka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Trefny
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trefny 1643 vs Pavelka 1552
Trefny
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trefny 80% vs Pavelka 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trefny 60% vs Pavelka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Trefny +1 · Pavelka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pavelka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavelka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrefny 1.91 / Pavelka 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pavelka)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13153989
Trefny1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 25 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back24% 6 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Pavelka1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 92 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it77% 65 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeTrefny5wins
AwayPavelka3wins
3 of 8 to a deciderTrefny leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrefnyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPavelka33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trefny2Pavelka6n = 8Pavelka took 6 of 8
S2Trefny5Pavelka3n = 8Trefny took 5 of 8
S3Trefny4Pavelka4n = 8split evenly
S4Trefny4Pavelka4n = 8split evenly
S5Trefny3Pavelka0n = 3Trefny took 3 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricTrefnyPavelkaT − PBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match41.240.1+1.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrefnyPavelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime60 / 118 vs 445 / 87550.9%50.9%60 / 118 vs 445 / 875Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.938.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaTrefny 1.91/Pavelka 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Trefny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 9 · 02:58J. Trefny33611791R. Pavelka3711411113
WSep 8 · 22:30J. Trefny47811134113R. Pavelka49119111172
WSep 6 · 20:00J. Trefny47121311113R. Pavelka361015561
LAug 31 · 17:29J. Trefny31114971R. Pavelka4181111113
WAug 31 · 16:00J. Trefny4291111113R. Pavelka27116551
LJul 25 · 23:00J. Trefny303111061R. Pavelka3711312113
WJul 15 · 20:58J. Trefny49711911113R. Pavelka4311511882
WJul 15 · 19:00J. Trefny511061211123R. Pavelka511211108102
J. Trefny10
WSep 20 · 24:00P. Budinsky1.61111111482J. Trefny2.20813911113LSep 19 · 22:30D. Kouble1.6711611133J. Trefny2.109115111WSep 19 · 17:32J. Trefny1.6720514113Y. Holovatiuk2.0918111291WSep 19 · 16:00J. Trefny1.801111113Y. Holovatiuk1.917780WSep 19 · 15:30K. Novak2.2559111282J. Trefny1.571111910113WSep 19 · 14:00J. Trefny2.100101111113P. Budinsky1.6711129862LSep 9 · 02:58J. Trefny1.80611791R. Pavelka1.9111411113LSep 9 · 01:30J. Trefny3.5011291152R. Krejci1.28711119113WSep 9 · 24:30V. Postelt2.00101190J. Trefny1.731213113LSep 8 · 23:30M. Vedmoch1.44111112113J. Trefny2.63761481
R. Pavelka10
WSep 19 · 23:30R. Pavelka2.201411113D. Kouble1.6112540LSep 19 · 22:00R. Pavelka1.611165101J. Prokupek2.2061111123WSep 18 · 21:29R. Pavelka1.73116118113J. Prokupek2.0051121152WSep 18 · 20:00R. Pavelka2.50412118113P. Budinsky1.50111031172WSep 18 · 19:30J. Dedek2.0071131572R. Pavelka1.731131113113LSep 18 · 18:00R. Pavelka1.73111141192J. Prokupek2.00139117113WSep 9 · 02:58J. Trefny1.80611791R. Pavelka1.9111411113LSep 9 · 02:00R. Pavelka2.2011981172V. Postelt1.61711119113LSep 9 · 01:00R. Pavelka1.731011951M. Vedmoch2.0012311113WSep 9 · 24:00R. Krejci1.6711981132R. Pavelka2.10711119113
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