TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13154215
Played Sep 19Finished
Radim Pavelka
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1166115111012––
Jaroslav Prokupek
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:04 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadim Pavelka above · Jaroslav Prokupek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 72 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Radim Pavelka at 56.9%
72 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pavelka 48–50 Jaroslav Prokupek Radim Pavelka has won 48 of their 98 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 15:04What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Pavelka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
48-50 in 98
Prokupek
Correct
gap of 2 in 98, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavelka 1566 vs Prokupek 1484
Pavelka
Wrong
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavelka 80% vs Prokupek 60%
Pavelka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavelka 50% vs Prokupek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavelka +3 · Prokupek -2
Pavelka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Pavelka) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Prokupek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavelka 1.61 / Prokupek 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Pavelka)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13154215
Pavelka1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 18)
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 92 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it77% 65 of 84
Prokupek2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 18)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 91 of 229
Down 0–1, comes back16% 18 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavelka7wins
AwayProkupek3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPavelka leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavelka100%6 of 6
AwayProkupek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavelka6Prokupek4n = 10Pavelka took 6 of 10
S2Pavelka8Prokupek2n = 10Pavelka took 8 of 10
S3Pavelka5Prokupek5n = 10split evenly
S4Pavelka6Prokupek2n = 8Pavelka took 6 of 8
S5Pavelka2Prokupek3n = 5Prokupek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavelkaProkupekPavelka − ProkupekBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.634.2+8.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavelkaProkupekBasisWin rate · lifetime445 / 877 vs 665 / 139450.7%47.7%445 / 877 vs 665 / 1394Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaPavelka 1.61/Prokupek 2.20
Miss
What we said
58.9%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Prokupek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 21:29R. Pavelka47116118113J. Prokupek3451121152
LSep 18 · 18:00R. Pavelka46111141192J. Prokupek51139117113
WSep 6 · 20:59R. Pavelka331111113J. Prokupek186570
WSep 6 · 18:00R. Pavelka4311156113J. Prokupek326131121
WSep 4 · 14:00R. Pavelka3812114113J. Prokupek291051131
WJul 5 · 08:30R. Pavelka5511101112113J. Prokupek4621291492
WJun 20 · 09:30R. Pavelka331111113J. Prokupek176650
WJun 20 · 07:30R. Pavelka4181111113J. Prokupek25113741
LJun 18 · 16:30R. Pavelka47611101192J. Prokupek42113125113
LJun 5 · 06:00R. Pavelka4331191192J. Prokupek48118117113
R. Pavelka10
WSep 18 · 21:29R. Pavelka1.73116118113J. Prokupek2.0051121152WSep 18 · 20:00R. Pavelka2.50412118113P. Budinsky1.50111031172WSep 18 · 19:30J. Dedek2.0071131572R. Pavelka1.731131113113LSep 18 · 18:00R. Pavelka1.73111141192J. Prokupek2.00139117113WSep 9 · 02:58J. Trefny1.80611791R. Pavelka1.9111411113LSep 9 · 02:00R. Pavelka2.2011981172V. Postelt1.61711119113LSep 9 · 01:00R. Pavelka1.731011951M. Vedmoch2.0012311113WSep 9 · 24:00R. Krejci1.6711981132R. Pavelka2.10711119113LSep 8 · 22:30J. Trefny1.83811134113R. Pavelka1.83119111172LSep 7 · 16:59R. Pavelka1.831013111192T. Dousa1.831211136113
J. Prokupek10
WSep 19 · 23:00J. Prokupek2.501112113P. Budinsky1.5071060LSep 18 · 21:29R. Pavelka1.73116118113J. Prokupek2.0051121152LSep 18 · 20:30J. Prokupek1.91115671J. Dedek1.8071111113WSep 18 · 19:00J. Prokupek2.25881111113P. Budinsky1.5711117882WSep 18 · 18:00R. Pavelka1.73111141192J. Prokupek2.00139117113WSep 15 · 20:58L. Krok2.107770J. Prokupek1.671111113WSep 15 · 20:30Y. Holovatiuk2.006117111J. Prokupek1.7311911133LSep 15 · 19:30J. Prokupek1.539370K. Darin2.381111113LSep 15 · 18:30L. Krok2.3851111113J. Prokupek1.53119761WSep 15 · 08:59M. Vesely1.448990J. Prokupek2.631111113
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