TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13147061
Played Sep 18Finished
Radim Pavelka
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
4111210113811117
Petr Budinsky
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:50 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timePetr Budinsky to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadim Pavelka above · Petr Budinsky below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 88 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Petr Budinsky at 59.7%
88 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pavelka 2–4 Petr Budinsky Radim Pavelka has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:50What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Budinsky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Budinsky
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavelka 1548 vs Budinsky 1491
Pavelka
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavelka 40% vs Budinsky 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavelka 40% vs Budinsky 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavelka +1 · Budinsky -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Budinsky) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Budinsky form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavelka 2.50 / Budinsky 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Budinsky)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13147061
Pavelka2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 67 of 162
Down 0–1, comes back24% 22 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Budinsky1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 21 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it67% 12 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomePavelka2wins
AwayBudinsky4wins
1 of 6 to a deciderBudinsky leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavelka40%2 of 5
AwayBudinskyn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavelka5Budinsky1n = 6Pavelka took 5 of 6
S2Pavelka2Budinsky4n = 6Budinsky took 4 of 6
S3Pavelka3Budinsky3n = 6split evenly
S4Pavelka1Budinsky4n = 5Budinsky took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricPavelkaBudinskyP − BBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match34.538.2−3.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavelkaBudinskyBasisWin rate · lifetime443 / 875 vs 77 / 15550.6%49.7%443 / 875 vs 77 / 155Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.335.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BudinskyPavelka 2.50/Budinsky 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.1%
Budinsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 2 · 08:30R. Pavelka351011771P. Budinsky4012611113
WMay 24 · 21:30R. Pavelka341211113P. Budinsky2510870
LMay 24 · 20:30R. Pavelka24115351P. Budinsky3741111113
WMar 15 · 21:58R. Pavelka4111711123P. Budinsky325116101
LMar 15 · 19:00R. Pavelka29137451P. Budinsky44111111113
LDec 24 · 02:00R. Pavelka44119113102P. Budinsky51811911123
R. Pavelka10
WSep 18 · 19:30J. Dedek2.0071131572R. Pavelka1.731131113113LSep 18 · 18:00R. Pavelka1.73111141192J. Prokupek2.00139117113WSep 9 · 02:58J. Trefny1.80611791R. Pavelka1.9111411113LSep 9 · 02:00R. Pavelka2.2011981172V. Postelt1.61711119113LSep 9 · 01:00R. Pavelka1.731011951M. Vedmoch2.0012311113WSep 9 · 24:00R. Krejci1.6711981132R. Pavelka2.10711119113LSep 8 · 22:30J. Trefny1.83811134113R. Pavelka1.83119111172LSep 7 · 16:59R. Pavelka1.831013111192T. Dousa1.831211136113WSep 7 · 16:30R. Pavelka1.911111113T. Dousa1.807580LSep 7 · 15:00R. Pavelka1.8081171142M. Sedlak1.91118119113
P. Budinsky10
WSep 18 · 20:58P. Budinsky1.3611117113J. Dedek3.00831161LSep 18 · 19:00J. Prokupek2.25881111113P. Budinsky1.5711117882WSep 18 · 18:30P. Budinsky1.441111113J. Dedek2.638950LAug 30 · 16:58D. Tuma1.5311116113P. Budinsky2.38801131LAug 30 · 16:30M. Nohejl1.731111113P. Budinsky2.008570WAug 30 · 15:30P. Budinsky2.5011118113D. Tuma1.50691171LAug 30 · 14:30T. Janata1.3311118113P. Budinsky3.25891151LAug 30 · 08:58P. Budinsky2.208290J. Svoboda1.611111113LAug 30 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.73118611113P. Budinsky2.0071111872WAug 30 · 07:30P. Budinsky1.83111178113J. Hradecky1.8347111192
Upcoming Matches
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