TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13042090
Played Aug 30Finished
Petr Budinsky
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116119811117––
Daniel Tuma
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:17 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeDaniel Tuma to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Budinsky above · Daniel Tuma below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 74 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Daniel Tuma at 69.5%
74 points played in total.
H2H Petr Budinsky 1–4 Daniel Tuma Petr Budinsky has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:17What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Tuma
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Tuma
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Budinsky 1491 vs Tuma 1612
Tuma
Wrong
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Budinsky 20% vs Tuma 80%
Tuma
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Budinsky 20% vs Tuma 70%
Tuma
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Budinsky -3 · Tuma -1
Budinsky
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Tuma) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tuma form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBudinsky 2.50 / Tuma 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 67%
Edge (Tuma)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13042090
Budinsky2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 16 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back6% 1 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Tuma1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 144 of 243
Up 2–0, closes it93% 68 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it76% 109 of 144
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBudinsky1wins
AwayTuma4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderTuma leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBudinskyn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayTuma75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Budinsky1Tuma4n = 5Tuma took 4 of 5
S2Budinsky2Tuma3n = 5Tuma took 3 of 5
S3Budinsky1Tuma4n = 5Tuma took 4 of 5
S4Budinsky3Tuma0n = 3Budinsky took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricBudinskyTumaB − TBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match34.241.4−7.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBudinskyTumaBasisWin rate · lifetime74 / 150 vs 767 / 147149.3%52.1%74 / 150 vs 767 / 1471Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TumaBudinsky 2.50/Tuma 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.5%
Tuma · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Budinsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 1 · 19:30P. Budinsky—7790D. Tuma—1111113
LJul 31 · 23:00P. Budinsky—2890D. Tuma—1111113
LMar 1 · 02:00P. Budinsky—111051262D. Tuma—9121110113
WJan 31 · 03:30P. Budinsky—51111113D. Tuma—119581
LJan 12 · 24:00P. Budinsky—111161452D. Tuma—1381112113
P. Budinsky10
LAug 30 · 16:58D. Tuma1.5311116113P. Budinsky2.38801131LAug 30 · 16:30M. Nohejl1.731111113P. Budinsky2.008570LAug 30 · 14:30T. Janata1.3311118113P. Budinsky3.25891151LAug 30 · 08:58P. Budinsky2.208290J. Svoboda1.611111113LAug 30 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.73118611113P. Budinsky2.0071111872WAug 30 · 07:30P. Budinsky1.83111178113J. Hradecky1.8347111192LAug 30 · 06:30J. Stolfa1.7381111113P. Budinsky2.00114991LAug 29 · 16:58P. Budinsky1.40115391J. Pozarsky2.7571111113LAug 29 · 16:30P. Budinsky1.73116671T. Vinter2.0091111113LAug 29 · 15:00P. Budinsky2.38311451D. Tuma1.5311511113
D. Tuma10
WSep 3 · 21:30D. Tuma1.521111113V. Postelt2.356960WSep 3 · 20:00M. Sedlak1.914611111D. Tuma1.8011117133WSep 3 · 19:00T. Vinter1.9141181182D. Tuma1.80111119113WSep 3 · 18:30D. Tuma1.40111212113V. Postelt2.757101481WSep 3 · 17:30D. Tuma1.73151110113M. Sobisek2.001351271WSep 3 · 16:00D. Tuma1.911111113J. Stolfa1.809770LSep 3 · 15:30M. Sobisek2.00118119133D. Tuma1.73411711112WSep 3 · 14:00D. Tuma2.008111510113J. Hradecky1.73118131252WAug 30 · 16:58D. Tuma1.5311116113P. Budinsky2.38801131WAug 29 · 15:00P. Budinsky2.38311451D. Tuma1.5311511113
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