TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13036523
Played Aug 29Finished
Petr Budinsky
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
311115411511––
Daniel Tuma
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:44 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeDaniel Tuma to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Budinsky above · Daniel Tuma below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 61 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Daniel Tuma at 64.5%
61 points played in total.
H2H Petr Budinsky 1–4 Daniel Tuma Petr Budinsky has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:44What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Tuma
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Tuma
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Budinsky 1500 vs Tuma 1639
Tuma
Correct
both rated, 139 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Budinsky 20% vs Tuma 60%
Tuma
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Budinsky 50% vs Tuma 70%
Tuma
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Budinsky +1 · Tuma +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Tuma)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Budinsky form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBudinsky 2.38 / Tuma 1.53
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Tuma)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13036523
Budinsky2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 15 of 36
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Tuma1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 147 of 249
Up 2–0, closes it93% 71 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it76% 111 of 147
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBudinsky1wins
AwayTuma4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderTuma leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBudinskyn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayTuma75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Budinsky1Tuma4n = 5Tuma took 4 of 5
S2Budinsky2Tuma3n = 5Tuma took 3 of 5
S3Budinsky1Tuma4n = 5Tuma took 4 of 5
S4Budinsky3Tuma0n = 3Budinsky took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricBudinskyTumaB − TBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match34.241.4−7.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBudinskyTumaBasisWin rate · lifetime73 / 145 vs 769 / 147450.3%52.2%73 / 145 vs 769 / 1474Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TumaBudinsky 2.38/Tuma 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.8%
Tuma · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tuma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 1 · 19:30P. Budinsky—7790D. Tuma—1111113
LJul 31 · 23:00P. Budinsky—2890D. Tuma—1111113
LMar 1 · 02:00P. Budinsky—111051262D. Tuma—9121110113
WJan 31 · 03:30P. Budinsky—51111113D. Tuma—119581
LJan 12 · 24:00P. Budinsky—111161452D. Tuma—1381112113
P. Budinsky10
LAug 30 · 16:58D. Tuma1.5311116113P. Budinsky2.38801131LAug 30 · 16:30M. Nohejl1.731111113P. Budinsky2.008570WAug 30 · 15:30P. Budinsky2.5011118113D. Tuma1.50691171LAug 30 · 14:30T. Janata1.3311118113P. Budinsky3.25891151LAug 30 · 08:58P. Budinsky2.208290J. Svoboda1.611111113LAug 30 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.73118611113P. Budinsky2.0071111872WAug 30 · 07:30P. Budinsky1.83111178113J. Hradecky1.8347111192LAug 30 · 06:30J. Stolfa1.7381111113P. Budinsky2.00114991LAug 29 · 16:58P. Budinsky1.40115391J. Pozarsky2.7571111113LAug 29 · 16:30P. Budinsky1.73116671T. Vinter2.0091111113
D. Tuma10
WSep 3 · 21:30D. Tuma1.521111113V. Postelt2.356960WSep 3 · 20:00M. Sedlak1.914611111D. Tuma1.8011117133WSep 3 · 19:00T. Vinter1.9141181182D. Tuma1.80111119113WSep 3 · 18:30D. Tuma1.40111212113V. Postelt2.757101481WSep 3 · 17:30D. Tuma1.73151110113M. Sobisek2.001351271WSep 3 · 16:00D. Tuma1.911111113J. Stolfa1.809770LSep 3 · 15:30M. Sobisek2.00118119133D. Tuma1.73411711112WSep 3 · 14:00D. Tuma2.008111510113J. Hradecky1.73118131252WAug 30 · 16:58D. Tuma1.5311116113P. Budinsky2.38801131LAug 30 · 15:30P. Budinsky2.5011118113D. Tuma1.50691171
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