TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13042091
Played Aug 30Finished
Matej Nohejl
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118115117––––
Petr Budinsky
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:16 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Nohejl to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Nohejl above · Petr Budinsky below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 53 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Matej Nohejl at 64.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Matej Nohejl 1–1 Petr Budinsky Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:16What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Nohejl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Nohejl 1640 vs Budinsky 1486
Nohejl
Correct
both rated, 154 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nohejl 100% vs Budinsky 40%
Nohejl
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nohejl 70% vs Budinsky 30%
Nohejl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nohejl +5 · Budinsky +1
Nohejl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Nohejl) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nohejl form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNohejl 1.73 / Budinsky 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Nohejl)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13042091
Nohejl1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 16 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it73% 8 of 11
Budinsky2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 16 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back6% 1 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeNohejl1wins
AwayBudinsky1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricNohejlBudinskyN − BBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match39.533.0+6.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNohejlBudinskyBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 228 vs 75 / 15348.7%49%111 / 228 vs 75 / 153Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.335.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NohejlNohejl 1.73/Budinsky 2.00
Hit
What we said
56.5%
Nohejl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Nohejl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 30 · 16:30M. Nohejl—1111113P. Budinsky—8570
LAug 2 · 15:00M. Nohejl—111111852P. Budinsky—137411113
M. Nohejl10
WAug 30 · 21:28M. Vizek1.80341171M. Nohejl1.9111118113LAug 30 · 20:00M. Vizek1.73511611113M. Nohejl2.0011811772WAug 30 · 19:00T. Vinter2.758150M. Nohejl1.401111113WAug 30 · 18:30M. Nohejl1.531111113T. Janata2.385450WAug 30 · 17:29M. Nohejl1.4411117113T. Janata2.63631131WAug 30 · 15:00M. Nohejl1.5711119113T. Janata2.25791151WAug 30 · 14:00D. Tuma1.8351221272M. Nohejl1.8311101110113WAug 26 · 17:30M. Nohejl1.7561111113T. Janata1.90118931WAug 26 · 16:30T. Vinter2.2081040M. Nohejl1.611112113WAug 26 · 15:30M. Nohejl1.7361112113T. Janata2.001161091
P. Budinsky10
LAug 30 · 16:58D. Tuma1.5311116113P. Budinsky2.38801131WAug 30 · 15:30P. Budinsky2.5011118113D. Tuma1.50691171LAug 30 · 14:30T. Janata1.3311118113P. Budinsky3.25891151LAug 30 · 08:58P. Budinsky2.208290J. Svoboda1.611111113LAug 30 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.73118611113P. Budinsky2.0071111872WAug 30 · 07:30P. Budinsky1.83111178113J. Hradecky1.8347111192LAug 30 · 06:30J. Stolfa1.7381111113P. Budinsky2.00114991LAug 29 · 16:58P. Budinsky1.40115391J. Pozarsky2.7571111113LAug 29 · 16:30P. Budinsky1.73116671T. Vinter2.0091111113LAug 29 · 15:00P. Budinsky2.38311451D. Tuma1.5311511113
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