TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13042308
Played Aug 30Finished
Tomas Vinter
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811111511––––
Matej Nohejl
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:34 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeMatej Nohejl to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Vinter above · Matej Nohejl below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 47 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Matej Nohejl at 66.9%
47 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Vinter 3–7 Matej Nohejl Tomas Vinter has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:34What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Nohejl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Nohejl
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vinter 1473 vs Nohejl 1652
Nohejl
Correct
both rated, 179 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vinter 40% vs Nohejl 100%
Nohejl
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vinter 20% vs Nohejl 90%
Nohejl
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vinter -2 · Nohejl +5
Nohejl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Nohejl) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nohejl form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVinter 2.75 / Nohejl 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Nohejl)+4.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13042308
Vinter2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 45 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back19% 13 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 38
Nohejl1.40
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 16 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it73% 8 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVinter3wins
AwayNohejl7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNohejl leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVinter50%2 of 4
AwayNohejl83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vinter4Nohejl6n = 10Nohejl took 6 of 10
S2Vinter3Nohejl7n = 10Nohejl took 7 of 10
S3Vinter5Nohejl5n = 10split evenly
S4Vinter3Nohejl3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricVinterNohejlV − NBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.537.5−3.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVinterNohejlBasisWin rate · lifetime268 / 527 vs 109 / 22550.9%48.4%268 / 527 vs 109 / 225Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NohejlVinter 2.75/Nohejl 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Nohejl · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Nohejl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 16:30T. Vinter—81040M. Nohejl—1112113
LAug 21 · 08:58T. Vinter—3890M. Nohejl—1111113
WAug 21 · 06:30T. Vinter—1111113M. Nohejl—6350
LMay 31 · 13:00T. Vinter—981371M. Nohejl—111111113
LMay 31 · 10:00T. Vinter—11391282M. Nohejl—9111110113
LMay 6 · 19:30T. Vinter—6980M. Nohejl—1111113
WMar 19 · 19:00T. Vinter—14811133M. Nohejl—12116111
LNov 20 · 22:00T. Vinter—581271M. Nohejl—111110113
WNov 20 · 19:00T. Vinter—8111183M. Nohejl—114941
LSep 5 · 15:00T. Vinter—1112106122M. Nohejl—7101211143
T. Vinter10
LSep 3 · 21:00M. Sedlak1.611211113T. Vinter2.2010990LSep 3 · 20:30T. Vinter1.738280V. Postelt2.001111113LSep 3 · 19:00T. Vinter1.9141181182D. Tuma1.80111119113LSep 3 · 18:00M. Sedlak1.80121111113T. Vinter1.911013251LSep 1 · 21:12J. Dedek2.1511118113T. Vinter1.63221121LSep 1 · 20:00T. Vinter1.5010340M. Vedmoch2.501211113WSep 1 · 19:30J. Dedek2.20119511112T. Vinter1.61911118133LSep 1 · 18:00T. Vinter1.36861181M. Kolar3.0011119113WAug 30 · 20:59T. Vinter2.251111123T. Janata1.5795100WAug 30 · 20:30T. Vinter3.001112123T. Janata1.36410100
M. Nohejl10
WAug 30 · 21:28M. Vizek1.80341171M. Nohejl1.9111118113LAug 30 · 20:00M. Vizek1.73511611113M. Nohejl2.0011811772WAug 30 · 18:30M. Nohejl1.531111113T. Janata2.385450WAug 30 · 17:29M. Nohejl1.4411117113T. Janata2.63631131WAug 30 · 16:30M. Nohejl1.731111113P. Budinsky2.008570WAug 30 · 15:00M. Nohejl1.5711119113T. Janata2.25791151WAug 30 · 14:00D. Tuma1.8351221272M. Nohejl1.8311101110113WAug 26 · 17:30M. Nohejl1.7561111113T. Janata1.90118931WAug 26 · 16:30T. Vinter2.2081040M. Nohejl1.611112113WAug 26 · 15:30M. Nohejl1.7361112113T. Janata2.001161091
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