TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13147116
Played Sep 18Finished
Jiri Dedek
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111133111513711
Radim Pavelka
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Dedek above · Radim Pavelka below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 15-13
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 92 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Radim Pavelka at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Dedek 23–30 Radim Pavelka Jiri Dedek has won 23 of their 53 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 14:51What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pavelka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-30 in 53
Pavelka
Correct
gap of 7 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dedek 1500 vs Pavelka 1538
Pavelka
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dedek 40% vs Pavelka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dedek 40% vs Pavelka 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dedek -1 · Pavelka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Pavelka) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavelka form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDedek 2.00 / Pavelka 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Pavelka)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13147116
Dedek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 77 of 193
Down 0–1, comes back23% 27 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 69
Pavelka1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 91 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it93% 41 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it77% 64 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDedek5wins
AwayPavelka5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDedek50%3 of 6
AwayPavelka50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dedek6Pavelka4n = 10Dedek took 6 of 10
S2Dedek5Pavelka5n = 10split evenly
S3Dedek3Pavelka7n = 10Pavelka took 7 of 10
S4Dedek6Pavelka2n = 8Dedek took 6 of 8
S5Dedek1Pavelka2n = 3Pavelka took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDedekPavelkaD − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.437.8−0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDedekPavelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime484 / 935 vs 442 / 87451.8%50.6%484 / 935 vs 442 / 874Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaDedek 2.00/Pavelka 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 19:30J. Dedek4212811113R. Pavelka361011781
LAug 31 · 15:30J. Dedek30711841R. Pavelka4011711113
WAug 30 · 21:30J. Dedek4011117113R. Pavelka27351181
WAug 30 · 19:00J. Dedek539111111113R. Pavelka4511813582
WAug 25 · 21:28J. Dedek331111113R. Pavelka209650
WAug 25 · 18:00J. Dedek3941111133R. Pavelka341175111
LJul 30 · 19:30J. Dedek3511751112R. Pavelka46611117113
LJul 27 · 19:00J. Dedek177370R. Pavelka331111113
LJul 25 · 22:00J. Dedek49139411122R. Pavelka551111118143
LJul 24 · 18:30J. Dedek36118981R. Pavelka4291111113
J. Dedek10
LSep 18 · 20:58P. Budinsky1.3611117113J. Dedek3.00831161WSep 18 · 20:30J. Prokupek1.91115671J. Dedek1.8071111113LSep 18 · 18:30P. Budinsky1.441111113J. Dedek2.638950WSep 16 · 17:00J. Dedek1.44121111113F. Briza2.63148751LSep 16 · 16:00J. Dedek1.449390Y. Holovatiuk2.631111113WSep 16 · 15:30F. Briza3.40111011882J. Dedek1.30912611113LSep 16 · 14:00J. Dedek1.83971111102T. Kolenic1.83111177123WSep 14 · 21:00J. Dedek1.4411911113Y. Holovatiuk2.63511331WSep 14 · 20:30J. Prokupek1.914114101J. Dedek1.8011811123LSep 14 · 19:30J. Dedek1.4061141182Y. Holovatiuk2.75118117113
R. Pavelka10
WSep 18 · 20:00R. Pavelka2.50412118113P. Budinsky1.50111031172LSep 18 · 18:00R. Pavelka1.73111141192J. Prokupek2.00139117113WSep 9 · 02:58J. Trefny1.80611791R. Pavelka1.9111411113LSep 9 · 02:00R. Pavelka2.2011981172V. Postelt1.61711119113LSep 9 · 01:00R. Pavelka1.731011951M. Vedmoch2.0012311113WSep 9 · 24:00R. Krejci1.6711981132R. Pavelka2.10711119113LSep 8 · 22:30J. Trefny1.83811134113R. Pavelka1.83119111172LSep 7 · 16:59R. Pavelka1.831013111192T. Dousa1.831211136113WSep 7 · 16:30R. Pavelka1.911111113T. Dousa1.807580LSep 7 · 15:00R. Pavelka1.8081171142M. Sedlak1.91118119113
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