TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13129605
Played Sep 15Finished
Lukas Krok
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511119117116––
Jaroslav Prokupek
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Prokupek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Krok above · Jaroslav Prokupek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 71 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Jaroslav Prokupek at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krok 2–6 Jaroslav Prokupek Lukas Krok has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 14:03What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Prokupek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Prokupek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krok 1517 vs Prokupek 1498
Krok
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krok 60% vs Prokupek 40%
Krok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krok 60% vs Prokupek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krok -1 · Prokupek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Prokupek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Prokupek form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrok 2.38 / Prokupek 1.53
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Krok)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13129605
Krok2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 57 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back23% 15 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 35
Prokupek1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 100 of 189
Up 2–0, closes it90% 56 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it72% 71 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKrok2wins
AwayProkupek6wins
1 of 8 to a deciderProkupek leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrok50%2 of 4
AwayProkupek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krok4Prokupek4n = 8split evenly
S2Krok2Prokupek6n = 8Prokupek took 6 of 8
S3Krok3Prokupek5n = 8Prokupek took 5 of 8
S4Krok1Prokupek3n = 4Prokupek took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricKrokProkupekK − PBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match30.536.4−5.9per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrokProkupekBasisWin rate · lifetime178 / 377 vs 659 / 138747.2%47.5%178 / 377 vs 659 / 1387Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrokKrok 2.38/Prokupek 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.6%
Prokupek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 14 · 21:30L. Krok229670J. Prokupek331111113
LSep 14 · 19:00L. Krok30119551J. Prokupek3961111113
WSep 10 · 21:30L. Krok3711411113J. Prokupek29511491
LSep 10 · 20:30L. Krok3941113652J. Prokupek531191111113
LAug 21 · 21:28L. Krok351210581J. Prokupek44101211113
WAug 21 · 20:30L. Krok341211113J. Prokupek2610970
LJul 6 · 18:30L. Krok206680J. Prokupek331111113
LMay 20 · 19:00L. Krok2789100J. Prokupek341111123
L. Krok10
LSep 15 · 20:58L. Krok2.107770J. Prokupek1.671111113LSep 15 · 20:00K. Darin2.005131211113L. Krok1.73111510932LSep 15 · 19:00Y. Holovatiuk2.63101112113L. Krok1.441231071LSep 14 · 21:30J. Prokupek1.611111113L. Krok2.209670WSep 14 · 20:00Y. Holovatiuk2.63551191L. Krok1.4411113113LSep 14 · 19:00J. Prokupek1.6761111113L. Krok2.10119551WSep 14 · 18:30L. Krok2.751111118113J. Dedek1.4058131172WSep 11 · 21:28K. Novak1.538870L. Krok2.381111113LSep 11 · 20:00L. Krok1.73113721K. Novak2.0041111113WSep 11 · 19:30T. Kolenic1.57116761L. Krok2.2541111113
J. Prokupek10
WSep 15 · 20:58L. Krok2.107770J. Prokupek1.671111113WSep 15 · 20:30Y. Holovatiuk2.006117111J. Prokupek1.7311911133LSep 15 · 19:30J. Prokupek1.539370K. Darin2.381111113WSep 15 · 08:59M. Vesely1.448990J. Prokupek2.631111113LSep 15 · 08:30P. Zmuda1.5781111113J. Prokupek2.25117891LSep 15 · 07:30J. Prokupek1.8311118782T. Varnuska1.83481111113LSep 15 · 06:30M. Vesely1.731111113J. Prokupek2.009580WSep 14 · 21:30J. Prokupek1.611111113L. Krok2.209670LSep 14 · 20:30J. Prokupek1.914114101J. Dedek1.8011811123WSep 14 · 19:00J. Prokupek1.6761111113L. Krok2.10119551
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