TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13110142
Played Sep 11Finished
Lukas Krok
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
114311711211––
Kamil Novak
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:33 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeKamil Novak to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Krok above · Kamil Novak below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 60 set 4, 2-11 — our read held Kamil Novak at 62.4%
60 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krok 1–4 Kamil Novak Lukas Krok has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:33What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Krok
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Novak
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krok 1554 vs Novak 1443
Krok
Wrong
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krok 80% vs Novak 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krok 80% vs Novak 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krok +3 · Novak +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krok) · live re-read · sealed at 38% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrok 1.73 / Novak 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krok)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13110142
Krok1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 23 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it73% 19 of 26
Novak2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog17% won 4 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back7% 1 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKrok1wins
AwayNovak4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderNovak leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrokn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayNovak100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krok2Novak3n = 5Novak took 3 of 5
S2Krok2Novak3n = 5Novak took 3 of 5
S3Krok2Novak3n = 5Novak took 3 of 5
S4Krok1Novak3n = 4Novak took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricKrokNovakK − NBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match32.640.6−8.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrokNovakBasisWin rate · lifetime178 / 377 vs 140 / 29547.2%47.5%178 / 377 vs 140 / 295Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrokKrok 1.73/Novak 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Krok · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Novak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WJun 10 · 18:30L. Krok—111110113K. Novak—691271
LJan 15 · 22:30L. Krok—41111452K. Novak—119911113
LJan 15 · 19:00L. Krok—117741K. Novak—91111113
LAug 1 · 18:00L. Krok—9350K. Novak—1111113
LMar 25 · 20:00L. Krok—81011101K. Novak—11128123
L. Krok10
WSep 11 · 19:30T. Kolenic1.57116761L. Krok2.2541111113WSep 11 · 18:00L. Krok1.80911116113K. Darin1.9111761192WSep 10 · 21:30J. Prokupek1.53511491L. Krok2.3811411113LSep 10 · 20:30J. Prokupek1.671191111113L. Krok2.1041113652WSep 10 · 19:30L. Krok1.611261011113J. Jnr2.20101112892WSep 10 · 18:30Y. Holovatiuk2.50911831L. Krok1.5011811113WSep 8 · 21:30L. Krok1.8511611123K. Darin1.858115101WSep 8 · 20:00L. Krok1.571111113Y. Holovatiuk2.255570WSep 8 · 19:30K. Darin1.83119311102L. Krok1.83911119123LSep 8 · 18:00L. Krok1.4411771382J. Jnr2.634111111113
K. Novak10
WSep 11 · 19:00K. Darin1.808870K. Novak1.911111113WSep 11 · 18:30K. Novak1.36127811113T. Kolenic3.00101111692WAug 21 · 20:58K. Novak1.0811511123J. Steffan7.007118101WAug 21 · 20:00J. Steffan6.504970K. Novak1.101111113LAug 21 · 19:00Y. Holovatiuk2.38511114143K. Novak1.53119611122LAug 21 · 18:30K. Novak1.619980F. Jungman2.201111113WAug 14 · 21:30K. Novak1.6191111113Y. Holovatiuk2.20115851LAug 14 · 20:30J. Didi2.101111410113K. Novak1.6764111282WAug 14 · 19:30K. Novak2.101111113Y. Holovatiuk1.678980WAug 14 · 18:30M. Stefek2.007360K. Novak1.731111113
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