TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13111534
Played Sep 10Finished
Jaroslav Prokupek
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511114411911––
Lukas Krok
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:05 and never touched — 56.3% is still 56.3%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Prokupek to win
56.3%
56.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Prokupek above · Lukas Krok below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 66 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jaroslav Prokupek at 56.3%
66 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Prokupek 4–2 Lukas Krok Lukas Krok has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Prokupek beat Krok 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:05What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Prokupek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Prokupek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Prokupek 1515 vs Krok 1528
Krok
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Prokupek 40% vs Krok 80%
Krok
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Prokupek 50% vs Krok 80%
Krok
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Prokupek +1 · Krok -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Prokupek) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krok form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProkupek 1.53 / Krok 2.38
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Prokupek)-1.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13111534
Prokupek1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite51% won 116 of 226
Up 2–0, closes it88% 67 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it72% 88 of 122
Krok2.38
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog47% won 59 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back23% 15 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeProkupek4wins
AwayKrok2wins
1 of 6 to a deciderProkupek leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProkupek100%3 of 3
AwayKrok66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Prokupek3Krok3n = 6split evenly
S2Prokupek4Krok2n = 6Prokupek took 4 of 6
S3Prokupek3Krok3n = 6split evenly
S4Prokupek2Krok1n = 3Prokupek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricProkupekKrokP − KBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match36.532.0+4.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProkupekKrokBasisWin rate · lifetime650 / 1366 vs 177 / 37747.6%47%650 / 1366 vs 177 / 377Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ProkupekProkupek 1.53/Krok 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.8%
Prokupek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Krok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 10 · 21:30J. Prokupek—511491L. Krok—11411113
WSep 10 · 20:30J. Prokupek—1191111113L. Krok—41113652
WAug 21 · 21:28J. Prokupek—101211113L. Krok—1210581
LAug 21 · 20:30J. Prokupek—10970L. Krok—1211113
WJul 6 · 18:30J. Prokupek—1111113L. Krok—6680
WMay 20 · 19:00J. Prokupek—1111123L. Krok—89100
J. Prokupek10
WSep 10 · 20:30J. Prokupek1.671191111113L. Krok2.1041113652LSep 10 · 19:00J. Prokupek1.6761151162Y. Holovatiuk2.10116116113WSep 10 · 18:00J. Jnr2.20681141J. Prokupek1.6111117113LSep 8 · 21:28T. Dousa1.801111123J. Prokupek1.9184100LSep 8 · 20:00J. Prokupek1.914890T. Dousa1.801111113WSep 8 · 19:30J. Plachy1.8091110101J. Prokupek1.9111712123WSep 8 · 18:00J. Prokupek1.91118117113J. Dedek1.8091191182LSep 8 · 03:30J. Prokupek2.25145661D. Kouble1.57121111113LSep 8 · 02:00P. Fojt2.25911911113J. Prokupek1.5711511752WSep 8 · 24:30J. Prokupek2.25118119143D. Kouble1.57911711122
L. Krok10
LSep 10 · 20:30J. Prokupek1.671191111113L. Krok2.1041113652WSep 10 · 19:30L. Krok1.611261011113J. Jnr2.20101112892WSep 10 · 18:30Y. Holovatiuk2.50911831L. Krok1.5011811113WSep 8 · 21:30L. Krok1.8511611123K. Darin1.858115101WSep 8 · 20:00L. Krok1.571111113Y. Holovatiuk2.255570WSep 8 · 19:30K. Darin1.83119311102L. Krok1.83911119123LSep 8 · 18:00L. Krok1.4411771382J. Jnr2.634111111113WSep 5 · 21:30J. Plachy1.684780L. Krok2.051111113WSep 5 · 20:00L. Krok1.611411113Y. Holovatiuk2.2012460WSep 5 · 19:30J. Plachy1.7397111692L. Krok2.001111814113
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