TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12465816
Played Aug 21Finished
Jan Steffan
Home
6.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411911711––––
Kamil Novak
Away
1.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:18 and never touched — 85.5% is still 85.5%
Graded at full timeKamil Novak to win
85.5%
85.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Steffan above · Kamil Novak below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 53 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Kamil Novak at 85.5%
53 points played in total.
H2H Jan Steffan 0–2 Kamil Novak Jan Steffan has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:18What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.10 (86%)
Novak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Steffan 1480 vs Novak 1371
Steffan
Wrong
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Steffan 20% vs Novak 40%
Novak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Steffan 30% vs Novak 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Steffan -2 · Novak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Novak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novak form (40%) is below what odds imply (91%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSteffan 6.50 / Novak 1.10
Signal prob.15% / 86%
Edge (Novak)-0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12465816
Steffan6.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 87 of 230
Down 0–1, comes back16% 20 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 74
Novak1.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 16 of 29
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it77% 13 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSteffan0wins
AwayNovak2wins
Novak leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away2
These 2 meetings
MetricSteffanNovakS − NBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match13.033.0−20.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSteffanNovakBasisWin rate · lifetime461 / 962 vs 152 / 32147.9%47.4%461 / 962 vs 152 / 321Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovakSteffan 6.50/Novak 1.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.5%
Novak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Novak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJan 16 · 11:00J. Steffan—4530K. Novak—1111113
LSep 28 · 02:00J. Steffan—2660K. Novak—1111113
J. Steffan10
LSep 11 · 12:59J. Steffan1.9139111142M. Svedik1.80111179113WSep 11 · 12:30M. Svedik1.6111460J. Steffan2.201311113LSep 11 · 11:30J. Steffan2.63128721J. Dedek1.44101111113LSep 11 · 10:30A. Svoboda2.00271111113J. Steffan1.7311116852LSep 11 · 09:30T. Andrle1.90871111113J. Steffan1.8011118962WSep 11 · 08:30J. Steffan1.83611612123T. Andrle1.831181110102WSep 11 · 07:00J. Steffan2.20131112113O. Fejtek1.611191491LSep 11 · 06:00A. Svoboda2.201171011113J. Steffan1.6171112952WSep 9 · 16:59T. Regner2.258760J. Steffan1.571111113LSep 9 · 16:00J. Didi2.02119118113J. Steffan1.7081181162
K. Novak10
WSep 11 · 19:00K. Darin1.808870K. Novak1.911111113WSep 11 · 18:30K. Novak1.36127811113T. Kolenic3.00101111692WAug 21 · 20:58K. Novak1.0811511123J. Steffan7.007118101LAug 21 · 19:00Y. Holovatiuk2.38511114143K. Novak1.53119611122LAug 21 · 18:30K. Novak1.619980F. Jungman2.201111113WAug 14 · 21:30K. Novak1.6191111113Y. Holovatiuk2.20115851LAug 14 · 20:30J. Didi2.101111410113K. Novak1.6764111282WAug 14 · 19:30K. Novak2.101111113Y. Holovatiuk1.678980WAug 14 · 18:30M. Stefek2.007360K. Novak1.731111113LAug 4 · 20:58T. Dousa1.53111211123K. Novak2.3891013101
Upcoming Matches
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K. Novak
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