TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13108751
Played Sep 11Finished
Jan Steffan
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210811711211––
Jiri Dedek
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:09 and never touched — 59.1% is still 59.1%
Graded at full timeJiri Dedek to win
59.1%
59.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Steffan above · Jiri Dedek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 72 set 4, 2-11 — our read held Jiri Dedek at 59.1%
72 points played in total.
H2H Jan Steffan 12–15 Jiri Dedek Jan Steffan has won 12 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:09What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Dedek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-15 in 27
Dedek
Correct
gap of 3 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Steffan 1410 vs Dedek 1467
Dedek
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Steffan 40% vs Dedek 20%
Steffan
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Steffan 30% vs Dedek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Steffan -2 · Dedek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Dedek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dedek form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSteffan 2.63 / Dedek 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Dedek)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13108751
Steffan2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 95 of 244
Down 0–1, comes back18% 23 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 71
Dedek1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 150 of 249
Up 2–0, closes it98% 87 of 89
Up 1–0, closes it79% 112 of 141
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSteffan1wins
AwayDedek9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDedek leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSteffan20%1 of 5
AwayDedek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Steffan5Dedek5n = 10split evenly
S2Steffan5Dedek5n = 10split evenly
S3Steffan1Dedek9n = 10Dedek took 9 of 10
S4Steffan4Dedek5n = 9Dedek took 5 of 9
S5Steffan0Dedek4n = 4Dedek took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSteffanDedekS − DBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.142.5−6.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSteffanDedekBasisWin rate · lifetime464 / 972 vs 481 / 93147.7%51.7%464 / 972 vs 481 / 931Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DedekSteffan 2.63/Dedek 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Dedek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dedek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 16:30J. Steffan—117661J. Dedek—81111113
LJun 3 · 17:30J. Steffan—131261172J. Dedek—1114119113
LJun 3 · 14:30J. Steffan—101111582J. Dedek—124911113
WMay 21 · 10:00J. Steffan—13117113J. Dedek—1151141
LMay 4 · 24:00J. Steffan—712781J. Dedek—111011113
LFeb 18 · 11:30J. Steffan—11781122J. Dedek—511118113
LFeb 6 · 13:00J. Steffan—9111051J. Dedek—11812113
LJan 4 · 16:00J. Steffan—7111031J. Dedek—11612113
LDec 28 · 24:30J. Steffan—3390J. Dedek—1111113
LDec 22 · 11:00J. Steffan—111061132J. Dedek—612116113
J. Steffan10
LSep 11 · 12:59J. Steffan1.9139111142M. Svedik1.80111179113WSep 11 · 12:30M. Svedik1.6111460J. Steffan2.201311113LSep 11 · 10:30A. Svoboda2.00271111113J. Steffan1.7311116852LSep 11 · 09:30T. Andrle1.90871111113J. Steffan1.8011118962WSep 11 · 08:30J. Steffan1.83611612123T. Andrle1.831181110102WSep 11 · 07:00J. Steffan2.20131112113O. Fejtek1.611191491LSep 11 · 06:00A. Svoboda2.201171011113J. Steffan1.6171112952WSep 9 · 16:59T. Regner2.258760J. Steffan1.571111113LSep 9 · 16:00J. Didi2.02119118113J. Steffan1.7081181162LSep 9 · 15:00T. Regner2.131212211113J. Steffan1.56141011692
J. Dedek10
WSep 11 · 13:30J. Dedek1.431111113A. Svoboda2.607950WSep 11 · 12:00J. Dedek1.44117117133A. Svoboda2.63411911112WSep 11 · 10:00J. Dedek1.3011116113M. Svedik3.40641131LSep 10 · 13:00M. Kolar1.611111113J. Dedek2.207890LSep 10 · 12:00J. Dedek1.916660T. Vinter1.801111113LSep 10 · 11:30V. Postelt1.501111113J. Dedek2.508470LSep 10 · 10:00J. Dedek1.904730M. Kolar1.801111113WSep 8 · 20:59J. Dedek2.2011115133J. Plachy1.614911111WSep 8 · 20:30J. Dedek2.00115116113J. Plachy1.7351171122LSep 8 · 19:00J. Dedek1.73561371T. Dousa2.00111111113
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