TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13110748
Played Sep 11Finished
Kamil Novak
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210711811116119
Tibor Kolenic
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:33 and never touched — 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeKamil Novak to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKamil Novak above · Tibor Kolenic below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 96 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Kamil Novak at 70.4%
96 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Novak 7–2 Tibor Kolenic Tibor Kolenic has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:33What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Novak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Novak
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novak 1403 vs Kolenic 1454
Kolenic
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 60% vs Kolenic 20%
Novak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 50% vs Kolenic 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak +2 · Kolenic -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Novak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolenic form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 1.36 / Kolenic 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Novak)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13110748
Novak1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 16 of 29
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it81% 13 of 16
Kolenic3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 40 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back12% 10 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeNovak7wins
AwayKolenic2wins
1 of 9 to a deciderNovak leads 7–2, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovak85.7%6 of 7
AwayKolenicn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novak7Kolenic2n = 9Novak took 7 of 9
S2Novak5Kolenic4n = 9Novak took 5 of 9
S3Novak5Kolenic4n = 9Novak took 5 of 9
S4Novak4Kolenic2n = 6Novak took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home444%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricNovakKolenicN − KBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set72+5of 9Avg pointsper match35.632.3+3.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakKolenicBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 310 vs 273 / 58448.4%46.8%150 / 310 vs 273 / 584Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovakNovak 1.36/Kolenic 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.4%
Novak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Novak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJul 8 · 19:30K. Novak—11118113T. Kolenic—881181
WDec 19 · 16:30K. Novak—11611103T. Kolenic—411771
LAug 31 · 01:00K. Novak—51090T. Kolenic—1112113
LAug 5 · 03:30K. Novak—114531T. Kolenic—61111113
WAug 5 · 02:30K. Novak—61111113T. Kolenic—118651
WApr 22 · 22:00K. Novak—116118113T. Kolenic—91131162
WMar 22 · 03:00K. Novak—1111113T. Kolenic—8930
WFeb 15 · 13:30K. Novak—11126113T. Kolenic—9101171
WFeb 10 · 23:00K. Novak—1311113T. Kolenic—11970
K. Novak10
WAug 21 · 20:58K. Novak1.0811511123J. Steffan7.007118101WAug 21 · 20:00J. Steffan6.504970K. Novak1.101111113LAug 21 · 19:00Y. Holovatiuk2.38511114143K. Novak1.53119611122LAug 21 · 18:30K. Novak1.619980F. Jungman2.201111113WAug 14 · 21:30K. Novak1.6191111113Y. Holovatiuk2.20115851LAug 14 · 20:30J. Didi2.101111410113K. Novak1.6764111282WAug 14 · 19:30K. Novak2.101111113Y. Holovatiuk1.678980WAug 14 · 18:30M. Stefek2.007360K. Novak1.731111113LAug 4 · 20:58T. Dousa1.53111211123K. Novak2.3891013101LAug 4 · 20:30K. Novak1.73611981Y. Holovatiuk2.0011911113
T. Kolenic10
LAug 31 · 17:01J. Dedek1.851111113T. Kolenic1.858480WAug 31 · 16:30T. Kolenic1.83117511113J. Dedek1.8371111792LAug 31 · 15:00T. Kolenic2.20118991J. Trefny1.6151111113LAug 31 · 14:00R. Pavelka1.28351111113T. Kolenic3.5011114672LAug 31 · 08:58M. Kolar1.221111113T. Kolenic4.009570LAug 31 · 08:30M. Kolar1.251113113T. Kolenic3.7541140WAug 31 · 07:30T. Kolenic2.75813813113M. Vedmoch1.401111111162LAug 31 · 06:30J. Plachy1.801111113T. Kolenic1.919660WAug 28 · 21:08F. Briza2.1581141152T. Kolenic1.63116116113WAug 28 · 20:30T. Kolenic1.671013811153F. Briza2.101211118132
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