TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12355108
Played Aug 4Finished
Kamil Novak
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611119911811––
Yurii Holovatiuk
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:36 and never touched — 60.3% is still 60.3%
Graded at full timeKamil Novak to win
60.3%
60.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKamil Novak above · Yurii Holovatiuk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 76 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Kamil Novak at 60.3%
76 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Novak 16–12 Yurii Holovatiuk Yurii Holovatiuk has won 12 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:36What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Novak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-12 in 28
Novak
Wrong
gap of 4 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novak 1368 vs Holovatiuk 1489
Holovatiuk
Correct
both rated, 121 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 40% vs Holovatiuk 60%
Holovatiuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 20% vs Holovatiuk 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak -3 · Holovatiuk -1
Novak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Novak) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novak form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 1.73 / Holovatiuk 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Novak)+1.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12355108
Novak1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 18 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it74% 14 of 19
Holovatiuk2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 43 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back21% 14 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovak6wins
AwayHolovatiuk4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNovak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovak60%3 of 5
AwayHolovatiuk40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novak5Holovatiuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Novak7Holovatiuk3n = 10Novak took 7 of 10
S3Novak6Holovatiuk4n = 10Novak took 6 of 10
S4Novak3Holovatiuk2n = 5Novak took 3 of 5
S5Novak1Holovatiuk2n = 3Holovatiuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovakHolovatiukN − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.533.5+3.0per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakHolovatiukBasisWin rate · lifetime160 / 347 vs 270 / 56546.1%47.8%160 / 347 vs 270 / 565Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovakNovak 1.73/Holovatiuk 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Novak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Holovatiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LApr 10 · 19:30K. Novak—61060Y. Holovatiuk—1112113
WMar 18 · 21:00K. Novak—1111113Y. Holovatiuk—3770
LMar 8 · 18:29K. Novak—8760Y. Holovatiuk—1111113
LMar 8 · 15:00K. Novak—11113972Y. Holovatiuk—891111113
WFeb 18 · 22:00K. Novak—101211113Y. Holovatiuk—1210591
WFeb 18 · 21:00K. Novak—91111203Y. Holovatiuk—1172181
WJan 15 · 21:00K. Novak—711311113Y. Holovatiuk—11411742
LDec 25 · 18:00K. Novak—11311482Y. Holovatiuk—511811113
WDec 25 · 17:30K. Novak—1711123Y. Holovatiuk—153100
WDec 21 · 03:00K. Novak—1111113Y. Holovatiuk—7450
K. Novak10
WSep 11 · 19:00K. Darin1.808870K. Novak1.911111113WSep 11 · 18:30K. Novak1.36127811113T. Kolenic3.00101111692WAug 21 · 20:58K. Novak1.0811511123J. Steffan7.007118101WAug 21 · 20:00J. Steffan6.504970K. Novak1.101111113LAug 21 · 19:00Y. Holovatiuk2.38511114143K. Novak1.53119611122LAug 21 · 18:30K. Novak1.619980F. Jungman2.201111113WAug 14 · 21:30K. Novak1.6191111113Y. Holovatiuk2.20115851LAug 14 · 20:30J. Didi2.101111410113K. Novak1.6764111282WAug 14 · 19:30K. Novak2.101111113Y. Holovatiuk1.678980WAug 14 · 18:30M. Stefek2.007360K. Novak1.731111113
Y. Holovatiuk10
WSep 10 · 20:58Y. Holovatiuk1.831111113J. Jnr1.839890WSep 10 · 20:00J. Jnr1.6188120Y. Holovatiuk2.201111143WSep 10 · 19:00J. Prokupek1.6761151162Y. Holovatiuk2.10116116113LSep 10 · 18:30Y. Holovatiuk2.50911831L. Krok1.5011811113LSep 8 · 21:00Y. Holovatiuk1.834980J. Jnr1.831111113LSep 8 · 20:00L. Krok1.571111113Y. Holovatiuk2.255570WSep 8 · 19:00J. Jnr1.734160Y. Holovatiuk2.001111113WAug 21 · 19:00Y. Holovatiuk2.38511114143K. Novak1.53119611122LAug 14 · 21:30K. Novak1.6191111113Y. Holovatiuk2.20115851LAug 14 · 19:30K. Novak2.101111113Y. Holovatiuk1.678980
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