TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13154402
Played Sep 19Finished
Kamil Novak
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5119111191210811
Jan Trefny
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:53 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeJan Trefny to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKamil Novak above · Jan Trefny below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 97 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Jan Trefny at 58.9%
97 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:53What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Trefny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Novak 1424 vs Trefny 1543
Trefny
Correct
both rated, 119 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 60% vs Trefny 40%
Novak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 60% vs Trefny 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak -2 · Trefny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Trefny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trefny form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 2.25 / Trefny 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Trefny)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13154402
Novak2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog27% won 6 of 22
Down 0–1, comes back14% 2 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Trefny1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite47% won 24 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it75% 15 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakTrefnyBasisWin rate · lifetime136 / 287 vs 56 / 11347.4%49.6%136 / 287 vs 56 / 113Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.035.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrefnyNovak 2.25/Trefny 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Trefny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Trefny won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
K. Novak10
LSep 19 · 16:30P. Budinsky1.361111113K. Novak3.008750LSep 19 · 14:30Y. Holovatiuk2.1011611113K. Novak1.67911781LSep 11 · 21:28K. Novak1.538870L. Krok2.381111113WSep 11 · 20:00L. Krok1.73113721K. Novak2.0041111113WSep 11 · 19:00K. Darin1.808870K. Novak1.911111113WSep 11 · 18:30K. Novak1.36127811113T. Kolenic3.00101111692WAug 21 · 20:58K. Novak1.0811511123J. Steffan7.007118101WAug 21 · 20:00J. Steffan6.504970K. Novak1.101111113LAug 21 · 19:00Y. Holovatiuk2.38511114143K. Novak1.53119611122LAug 21 · 18:30K. Novak1.619980F. Jungman2.201111113
J. Trefny10
WSep 19 · 16:00J. Trefny1.801111113Y. Holovatiuk1.917780WSep 19 · 14:00J. Trefny2.100101111113P. Budinsky1.6711129862LSep 9 · 02:58J. Trefny1.80611791R. Pavelka1.9111411113LSep 9 · 01:30J. Trefny3.5011291152R. Krejci1.28711119113WSep 9 · 24:30V. Postelt2.00101190J. Trefny1.731213113LSep 8 · 23:30M. Vedmoch1.44111112113J. Trefny2.63761481WSep 8 · 22:30J. Trefny1.83811134113R. Pavelka1.83119111172LSep 8 · 17:30J. Plachy2.101111113J. Trefny1.678750WSep 8 · 16:30J. Trefny1.5391111113J. Plachy2.38117681WSep 8 · 15:00J. Trefny1.801311113T. Dousa1.9111580
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