TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13153767
Played Sep 19Finished
Jan Trefny
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117118––––
Yurii Holovatiuk
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 12Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 12
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYurii Holovatiuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Trefny above · Yurii Holovatiuk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 55 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Yurii Holovatiuk at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Jan Trefny 1–1 Yurii Holovatiuk Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:14What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Trefny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Trefny 1570 vs Holovatiuk 1574
Holovatiuk
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trefny 60% vs Holovatiuk 100%
Holovatiuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trefny 60% vs Holovatiuk 100%
Holovatiuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Trefny +2 · Holovatiuk +12
Holovatiuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Trefny) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holovatiuk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrefny 1.80 / Holovatiuk 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Trefny)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13153767
Trefny1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite47% won 24 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it75% 15 of 20
Holovatiuk1.91
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 12
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 59 of 152
Down 0–1, comes back19% 16 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeTrefny1wins
AwayHolovatiuk1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricTrefnyHolovatiukT − HBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match30.038.5−8.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrefnyHolovatiukBasisWin rate · lifetime57 / 114 vs 354 / 69950%50.6%57 / 114 vs 354 / 699Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.737.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrefnyTrefny 1.80/Holovatiuk 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Trefny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Trefny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 8 · 14:00J. Trefny94320Y. Holovatiuk331111113
WAug 3 · 12:00J. Trefny51119128113Y. Holovatiuk44511101172
J. Trefny10
WSep 19 · 15:30K. Novak2.2559111282J. Trefny1.571111910113WSep 19 · 14:00J. Trefny2.100101111113P. Budinsky1.6711129862LSep 9 · 02:58J. Trefny1.80611791R. Pavelka1.9111411113LSep 9 · 01:30J. Trefny3.5011291152R. Krejci1.28711119113WSep 9 · 24:30V. Postelt2.00101190J. Trefny1.731213113LSep 8 · 23:30M. Vedmoch1.44111112113J. Trefny2.63761481WSep 8 · 22:30J. Trefny1.83811134113R. Pavelka1.83119111172LSep 8 · 17:30J. Plachy2.101111113J. Trefny1.678750WSep 8 · 16:30J. Trefny1.5391111113J. Plachy2.38117681WSep 8 · 15:00J. Trefny1.801311113T. Dousa1.9111580
Y. Holovatiuk10
WSep 19 · 15:00P. Budinsky1.61415611112Y. Holovatiuk2.201113114133WSep 19 · 14:30Y. Holovatiuk2.1011611113K. Novak1.67911781WSep 18 · 21:28Y. Holovatiuk1.80114116113K. Darin1.9191171162WSep 18 · 20:00Y. Holovatiuk1.67101111123K. Darin2.101278101WSep 18 · 19:30T. Andrle2.00981161Y. Holovatiuk1.7311116113WSep 18 · 18:00Y. Holovatiuk2.2061111113D. Parhomenko1.61115951WSep 16 · 21:30Y. Holovatiuk1.807111011113T. Andrle1.9011612852WSep 16 · 20:00J. Steffan1.6791191182Y. Holovatiuk2.10118118113WSep 16 · 19:00T. Andrle2.0011111011112Y. Holovatiuk1.73713128133WSep 16 · 18:30Y. Holovatiuk1.531161210113O. Kucirek2.38911101262
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