TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13153804
Played Sep 18Finished
Tomas Cerveny Jr
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311119711114––
Petr Kubat
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingTomas Cerveny Jr above · Petr Kubat below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 77 set 4, 11-4
77 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Cerveny Jr 1–1 Petr Kubat Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Jr beat Kubat 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubat form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.80 / Kubat 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jr)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13153804
Jr1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 66 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it83% 52 of 63
Kubat1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 14 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back12% 3 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeJr1wins
AwayKubat1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricJrKubatJ − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match32.533.0−0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrKubatBasisWin rate · lifetime333 / 608 vs 80 / 22054.8%36.4%333 / 608 vs 80 / 220Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.80/Kubat 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 18 · 11:20T. Jr44111111113P. Kubat33681361
LAug 12 · 14:50T. Jr215790P. Kubat331111113
T. Jr10
LSep 18 · 12:50T. Jr3.0061161132L. Rek1.36115110113WSep 18 · 11:20P. Kubat1.61681361T. Jr2.20111111113LSep 18 · 10:50A. Jr1.73121511113T. Jr2.001017671WSep 15 · 17:20A. Jr1.801378101T. Jr1.91111111123LSep 15 · 16:20T. Jr2.00119111122D. Zelezny1.73611913113LSep 15 · 15:20T. Jr2.00101112962A. Jr1.731291011113WSep 15 · 14:20T. Jr1.50117911113T. Rein2.5061111692WSep 10 · 22:35M. Juhasz1.80381121T. Jr1.9011119113LSep 10 · 20:55T. Jr2.0071211101M. Juhasz1.7311144123WSep 10 · 19:55T. Jr1.8311115113Z. Vyskocil1.83851141
P. Kubat10
LSep 18 · 12:20P. Kubat2.6310820A. Jr1.441211113LSep 18 · 11:20P. Kubat1.61681361T. Jr2.20111111113LSep 18 · 10:20P. Kubat2.0041111462L. Rek1.73118611113WAug 27 · 17:25P. Kubat1.9114711143P. Vodal1.8012119121WAug 27 · 16:50P. Kubat2.1011119113P. Vodal1.67741181LAug 27 · 15:20A. Jr2.7551111113P. Kubat1.40119661LAug 27 · 14:50T. Rein1.331111113P. Kubat3.253540LAug 25 · 21:55M. Boltik1.57149118123P. Kubat2.251211411102LAug 25 · 21:25P. Kubat2.255990J. Cousin1.571111113LAug 25 · 19:55M. Boltik1.731111119113P. Kubat2.0019131142
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