TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13111735
Played Sep 10Finished
Martin Juhasz
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
311811119211––
Tomas Cerveny Jr
Away
1.90
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Juhasz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Juhasz above · Tomas Cerveny Jr below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 66 set 4, 2-11 — our read held Martin Juhasz at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Martin Juhasz 3–0 Tomas Cerveny Jr Tomas Cerveny Jr has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Juhasz beat Jr 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:25What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Juhasz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Juhasz
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Juhasz 1417 vs Jr 1546
Jr
Correct
both rated, 130 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Juhasz 40% vs Jr 60%
Jr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Juhasz 30% vs Jr 50%
Jr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Juhasz +2 · Jr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Juhasz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Juhasz form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJuhasz 1.80 / Jr 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Juhasz)+2.6pp
TT Cup · #13111735
Juhasz1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 46 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it79% 33 of 42
Jr1.90
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 34 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back17% 10 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeJuhasz3wins
AwayJr0wins
Juhasz leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJuhasz100%3 of 3
AwayJrn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Juhasz3Jr0n = 3Juhasz took 3 of 3
S2Juhasz2Jr1n = 3Juhasz took 2 of 3
S3Juhasz2Jr1n = 3Juhasz took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricJuhaszJrJuhasz − JrBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match36.332.0+4.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJuhaszJrBasisWin rate · lifetime61 / 116 vs 339 / 62352.6%54.4%61 / 116 vs 339 / 623Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JuhaszJuhasz 1.80/Jr 1.90
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Juhasz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 10 · 20:55M. Juhasz—11144123T. Jr—71211101
WAug 17 · 19:20M. Juhasz—11211113T. Jr—911491
WJun 21 · 19:25M. Juhasz—1111113T. Jr—9860
M. Juhasz10
WSep 10 · 20:55T. Jr2.0071211101M. Juhasz1.7311144123WSep 10 · 20:25T. Barsa1.57211151M. Juhasz2.2511611113LSep 10 · 19:25M. Juhasz1.83411181Z. Vyskocil1.8311116113LSep 2 · 22:03L. Vich1.671711123M. Juhasz2.10158100LSep 2 · 20:55L. Vich1.8311113113M. Juhasz1.83891181LSep 2 · 20:25T. Barsa1.7313119133M. Juhasz2.0011911111LSep 2 · 19:25M. Juhasz1.73511881Z. Vyskocil2.0011611113LAug 31 · 22:25C. Kratochvil1.9012811123M. Juhasz1.8010119101WAug 31 · 20:55M. Juhasz2.2011411113T. Barsa1.61611961LAug 31 · 19:55M. Juhasz1.6111128141C. Kratochvil2.2051411163
T. Jr10
LSep 10 · 20:55T. Jr2.0071211101M. Juhasz1.7311144123WSep 10 · 19:55T. Jr1.8311115113Z. Vyskocil1.83851141WSep 10 · 18:55T. Jr2.10611211113T. Barsa1.6711711382WSep 9 · 13:30T. Jr2.0041111113A. Jr1.73116581LSep 9 · 12:20F. Dvorak1.4416119113T. Jr2.631461191LSep 9 · 11:50T. Hnizdil1.4011119123T. Jr2.755711101WSep 9 · 10:50T. Jr2.001111411113A. Jr1.7313911972WSep 6 · 22:04Z. Vyskocil1.6711111010112T. Jr2.10371212133LSep 6 · 20:55T. Jr1.73116771Z. Vyskocil2.0081111113LSep 6 · 19:55T. Jr2.00811991L. Vich1.7311811113
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