TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13104283
Played Sep 9Finished
Tomas Cerveny Jr
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
411116115118––
Ales Brandtl Jr
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Cerveny Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Cerveny Jr above · Ales Brandtl Jr below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 67 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Tomas Cerveny Jr at 54.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Cerveny Jr 21–25 Ales Brandtl Jr Tomas Cerveny Jr has won 21 of their 46 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 13:29What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-25 in 46
Jr
Wrong
gap of 4 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1516 vs Jr 1429
Jr
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 20% vs Jr 40%
Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 50% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -2 · Jr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.00 / Jr 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jr)+7.7pp
TT Cup · #13104283
Jr2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 32 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Jr1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite51% won 47 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it69% 29 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr4wins
AwayJr6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr66.7%4 of 6
AwayJr100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr6Jr4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S2Jr5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S3Jr1Jr9n = 10Jr took 9 of 10
S4Jr6Jr2n = 8Jr took 6 of 8
S5Jr1Jr3n = 4Jr took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrJrJr − JrBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.238.9−0.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrJrBasisWin rate · lifetime338 / 622 vs 253 / 53954.3%46.9%338 / 622 vs 253 / 539Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 2.00/Jr 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 17:23T. Jr—1011101172A. Jr—125129113
WAug 12 · 15:20T. Jr—116611113A. Jr—71111572
WJul 23 · 21:25T. Jr—11114113A. Jr—861131
WJul 23 · 18:20T. Jr—11119113A. Jr—551151
LJul 20 · 17:55T. Jr—61111642A. Jr—117811113
LJul 20 · 15:50T. Jr—11911131A. Jr—31113153
LJun 25 · 21:19T. Jr—43100A. Jr—1111123
LJun 25 · 19:20T. Jr—8490A. Jr—1111113
LJun 23 · 19:55T. Jr—1151111102A. Jr—811138123
WJun 18 · 22:05T. Jr—11118113A. Jr—981181
T. Jr10
LSep 9 · 12:20F. Dvorak1.4416119113T. Jr2.631461191LSep 9 · 11:50T. Hnizdil1.4011119123T. Jr2.755711101WSep 9 · 10:50T. Jr2.001111411113A. Jr1.7313911972WSep 6 · 22:04Z. Vyskocil1.6711111010112T. Jr2.10371212133LSep 6 · 20:55T. Jr1.73116771Z. Vyskocil2.0081111113LSep 6 · 19:55T. Jr2.00811991L. Vich1.7311811113LSep 6 · 18:55T. Jr1.50116471T. Rein2.5091111113WSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530WSep 3 · 12:50J. Vintr2.381111117122T. Jr1.53913511143WSep 3 · 11:50T. Jr1.36121411113P. Cibik3.001016881
A. Jr10
WSep 9 · 12:50A. Jr3.751113511113T. Hnizdil1.25131111962LSep 9 · 11:20F. Dvorak1.731111113A. Jr2.008680LSep 9 · 10:50T. Jr2.001111411113A. Jr1.7313911972LSep 8 · 18:25A. Jr2.205101281V. Koutnik1.60111210113LSep 8 · 16:55J. Osmera1.53811116113A. Jr2.3811871172WSep 8 · 16:25V. Koutnik1.5311712101A. Jr2.3871114123WSep 8 · 15:25A. Jr2.2011711113C. Kratochvil1.61911291LSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143LSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123
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