TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13097989
Played Sep 8Finished
Jan Osmera
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811118117611117
Ales Brandtl Jr
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:34 and never touched — 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeJan Osmera to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Osmera above · Ales Brandtl Jr below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 91 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Jan Osmera at 63.6%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jan Osmera 12–10 Ales Brandtl Jr Ales Brandtl Jr has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:34What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Osmera
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-10 in 22
Osmera
Correct
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osmera 1565 vs Jr 1446
Osmera
Correct
both rated, 119 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osmera 60% vs Jr 40%
Osmera
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osmera 70% vs Jr 50%
Osmera
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Osmera +1 · Jr +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Osmera)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsmera 1.53 / Jr 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Osmera)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13097989
Osmera1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 71 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it90% 28 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it76% 48 of 63
Jr2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 78 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back29% 31 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOsmera6wins
AwayJr4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderOsmera leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsmera75%6 of 8
AwayJrn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osmera8Jr2n = 10Osmera took 8 of 10
S2Osmera4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S3Osmera4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S4Osmera4Jr3n = 7Osmera took 4 of 7
S5Osmera3Jr2n = 5Osmera took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOsmeraJrO − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.341.1+1.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsmeraJrBasisWin rate · lifetime264 / 476 vs 252 / 53555.5%47.1%264 / 476 vs 252 / 535Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsmeraOsmera 1.53/Jr 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Osmera · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Osmera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 13 · 13:35J. Osmera—1111113A. Jr—6940
LAug 13 · 12:50J. Osmera—115814102A. Jr—9111112123
WJul 16 · 10:33J. Osmera—1118810113A. Jr—816111222
WJul 16 · 07:25J. Osmera—11614113A. Jr—9111271
LJul 15 · 09:54J. Osmera—4890A. Jr—1111113
LJul 15 · 07:25J. Osmera—115891A. Jr—91111113
WJun 20 · 07:25J. Osmera—1411113A. Jr—12870
WApr 13 · 07:55J. Osmera—116811113A. Jr—81111982
LApr 8 · 13:30J. Osmera—1011911162A. Jr—129117183
WApr 8 · 10:50J. Osmera—1110115113A. Jr—51291162
J. Osmera10
WSep 8 · 17:55J. Osmera1.7391111113C. Kratochvil2.00116781WSep 8 · 15:55J. Osmera1.73511411113C. Kratochvil2.0011911992LSep 8 · 14:55J. Osmera1.619114131V. Koutnik2.2011911153LAug 20 · 10:38M. Filipek1.8381114113J. Osmera1.831191291WAug 20 · 08:55J. Osmera1.73871111143P. Vodal2.00111198122WAug 20 · 07:55J. Osmera1.66911611113B. Budik2.1011811892WAug 18 · 14:00J. Sebl2.14612911J. Osmera1.58111011113WAug 18 · 12:50O. Knazik1.73812881J. Osmera2.00111011113LAug 18 · 11:50J. Osmera1.57513141162J. Sebl2.2511111213113WAug 18 · 10:20T. Jr2.63111181162J. Osmera1.44913119113
A. Jr10
WSep 8 · 16:25V. Koutnik1.5311712101A. Jr2.3871114123WSep 8 · 15:25A. Jr2.2011711113C. Kratochvil1.61911291LSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143LSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123WSep 6 · 10:55A. Jr2.001181111113L. Rek1.7313115772LSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113LSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 11:25A. Jr2.381111113L. Rek1.538780
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