Jan Osmera vs Jachym Sebl 2-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #12452004

Played Aug 18Finished

Jan Osmera

Home

1.57

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 2

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

511131114121113611

Jachym Sebl

Away

2.25

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:32 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%

Graded at full time

Jan Osmera to win

66.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

no pick shipped

How it is goingJan Osmera above · Jachym Sebl below

Set 1 · 5-11

Set 2 · 13-11

Set 3 · 14-12

Set 4 · 11-13

Set 5 · 6-11

Point 107 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jan Osmera at 66.9%

107 points played in total.

H2H Jan Osmera 25–20 Jachym Sebl Jachym Sebl has won 20 of their 45 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4Same sideHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 21:32

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Osmera

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

25-20 in 45

Osmera

Wrong

gap of 5 in 45, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Osmera 1559 vs Sebl 1465

Osmera

Wrong

both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Osmera 60% vs Sebl 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Osmera 70% vs Sebl 30%

Osmera

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Osmera +2 · Sebl +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Osmera)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Sebl form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsOsmera 1.57 / Sebl 2.25

Signal prob.67% / 33%

Edge (Osmera)+8.0pp

TT Cup · #12452004

Osmera1.57

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Won last 2

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite60% won 90 of 149

Up 2–0, closes it92% 35 of 38

Up 1–0, closes it70% 59 of 84

Sebl2.25

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog40% won 66 of 165

Down 0–1, comes back20% 18 of 89

Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 60

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeOsmera6wins

AwaySebl4wins

2 of 10 to a deciderOsmera leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeOsmera71.4%5 of 7

AwaySebl66.7%2 of 3

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Osmera7Sebl3n = 10Osmera took 7 of 10

S2Osmera6Sebl4n = 10Osmera took 6 of 10

S3Osmera6Sebl4n = 10Osmera took 6 of 10

S4Osmera1Sebl3n = 4Sebl took 3 of 4

Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home440%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricOsmeraSeblO − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.133.0+3.1per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricOsmeraSeblBasisWin rate · lifetime266 / 483 vs 295 / 63555.1%46.5%266 / 483 vs 295 / 635Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.435.6per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Osmera

Osmera 1.57/Sebl 2.25

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

66.9%

Osmera · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Sebl won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

LAug 17 · 11:20J. Osmera—8680J. Sebl—1111113

WAug 16 · 19:20J. Osmera—1111113J. Sebl—5740

WAug 12 · 13:25J. Osmera—1117113J. Sebl—71570

LAug 12 · 10:50J. Osmera—5660J. Sebl—1111113

LAug 3 · 09:25J. Osmera—1212111062J. Sebl—1014712113

WJul 5 · 12:20J. Osmera—111311113J. Sebl—1311881

WJun 18 · 12:20J. Osmera—1112113J. Sebl—31090

WJun 16 · 13:40J. Osmera—1111113J. Sebl—5580

LJun 16 · 11:20J. Osmera—1151191J. Sebl—51113113

WJun 12 · 13:54J. Osmera—111189113J. Sebl—98111162

J. Osmera10

LAug 20 · 10:38M. Filipek1.8381114113J. Osmera1.831191291 WAug 20 · 08:55J. Osmera1.73871111143P. Vodal2.00111198122 WAug 20 · 07:55J. Osmera1.66911611113B. Budik2.1011811892 WAug 18 · 14:00J. Sebl2.14612911J. Osmera1.58111011113 WAug 18 · 12:50O. Knazik1.73812881J. Osmera2.00111011113 WAug 18 · 10:20T. Jr2.63111181162J. Osmera1.44913119113 WAug 17 · 13:23J. Osmera1.3611711113T. Rein3.00611981 LAug 17 · 12:50J. Osmera1.8311111061O. Knazik1.8313812113 LAug 17 · 11:20J. Sebl2.631111113J. Osmera1.448680 WAug 17 · 10:50T. Rein2.3811561192J. Osmera1.53811117113

J. Sebl10

WSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113 WSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101 WSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123 LSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112 WSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890 WSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122 WSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861 LSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123 LAug 18 · 14:00J. Sebl2.14612911J. Osmera1.58111011113 WAug 17 · 11:20J. Sebl2.631111113J. Osmera1.448680

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