TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12445406
Played Aug 17Finished
Tomas Rein
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118511611117911
Jan Osmera
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:12 and never touched — 72.8% is still 72.8%
Graded at full timeJan Osmera to win
72.8%
72.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Rein above · Jan Osmera below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 90 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Jan Osmera at 72.8%
90 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Rein 12–30 Jan Osmera Tomas Rein has won 12 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:12What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Osmera
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-30 in 42
Osmera
Correct
gap of 18 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rein 1483 vs Osmera 1577
Osmera
Correct
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rein 60% vs Osmera 80%
Osmera
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rein 50% vs Osmera 70%
Osmera
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rein +1 · Osmera +4
Osmera
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Osmera) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osmera form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRein 2.38 / Osmera 1.53
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Osmera)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12445406
Rein2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 93 of 259
Down 0–1, comes back21% 32 of 151
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 85
Osmera1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 88 of 145
Up 2–0, closes it92% 35 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it70% 58 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRein1wins
AwayOsmera9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOsmera leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReinn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayOsmera100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rein2Osmera8n = 10Osmera took 8 of 10
S2Rein4Osmera6n = 10Osmera took 6 of 10
S3Rein3Osmera7n = 10Osmera took 7 of 10
S4Rein0Osmera4n = 4Osmera took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricReinOsmeraR − OBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match30.637.9−7.3per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReinOsmeraBasisWin rate · lifetime393 / 825 vs 263 / 47847.6%55%393 / 825 vs 263 / 478Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.239.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsmeraRein 2.38/Osmera 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.8%
Osmera · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Osmera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 16 · 20:50T. Rein—118116102J. Osmera—611811123
LAug 13 · 11:50T. Rein—97100J. Osmera—1111123
LJul 29 · 13:19T. Rein—86120J. Osmera—1111143
WJul 29 · 12:50T. Rein—1111113J. Osmera—9580
LJul 19 · 07:55T. Rein—211111062J. Osmera—116912113
LJun 28 · 11:25T. Rein—8790J. Osmera—1111113
LMay 29 · 15:50T. Rein—7890J. Osmera—1111113
LMay 25 · 11:25T. Rein—1414671J. Osmera—161211113
LMay 24 · 11:55T. Rein—111771J. Osmera—11811113
LMay 22 · 19:20T. Rein—5780J. Osmera—1111113
T. Rein10
WSep 6 · 22:35T. Rein1.921211113L. Vich1.7810540WSep 6 · 21:25L. Vich2.3858111182T. Rein1.53111175113LSep 6 · 20:25T. Rein1.40119121192Z. Vyskocil2.75311143113WSep 6 · 18:55T. Jr1.50116471T. Rein2.5091111113WSep 5 · 10:20T. Rein1.73771211113P. Vodal2.00111110972WSep 5 · 08:55T. Rein1.80141114163P. Vodal1.91121312141WSep 5 · 07:55T. Rein4.00981111113T. Hnizdil1.2211119572LSep 5 · 06:55T. Rein1.9113661142B. Budik1.801111119113LSep 3 · 14:09T. Hnizdil1.251111113T. Rein3.753990LSep 3 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.611181110113T. Rein2.2091181272
J. Osmera10
LAug 20 · 10:38M. Filipek1.8381114113J. Osmera1.831191291WAug 20 · 08:55J. Osmera1.73871111143P. Vodal2.00111198122WAug 20 · 07:55J. Osmera1.66911611113B. Budik2.1011811892WAug 18 · 14:00J. Sebl2.14612911J. Osmera1.58111011113WAug 18 · 12:50O. Knazik1.73812881J. Osmera2.00111011113LAug 18 · 11:50J. Osmera1.57513141162J. Sebl2.2511111213113WAug 18 · 10:20T. Jr2.63111181162J. Osmera1.44913119113WAug 17 · 13:23J. Osmera1.3611711113T. Rein3.00611981LAug 17 · 12:50J. Osmera1.8311111061O. Knazik1.8313812113LAug 17 · 11:20J. Sebl2.631111113J. Osmera1.448680
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