TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12445417
Played Aug 17Finished
Jachym Sebl
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118116118––––
Jan Osmera
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:24 and never touched — 72.5% is still 72.5%
Graded at full timeJan Osmera to win
72.5%
72.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJachym Sebl above · Jan Osmera below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 55 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Jan Osmera at 72.5%
55 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Sebl 19–25 Jan Osmera Jachym Sebl has won 19 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:24What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Osmera
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-25 in 44
Osmera
Wrong
gap of 6 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebl 1435 vs Osmera 1585
Osmera
Wrong
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebl 20% vs Osmera 100%
Osmera
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebl 20% vs Osmera 80%
Osmera
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebl +1 · Osmera +5
Osmera
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Osmera)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osmera form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebl 2.63 / Osmera 1.44
Signal prob.28% / 73%
Edge (Osmera)+8.0pp
TT Cup · #12445417
Sebl2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 65 of 163
Down 0–1, comes back21% 18 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 59
Osmera1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 88 of 145
Up 2–0, closes it92% 35 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it70% 58 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebl4wins
AwayOsmera6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOsmera leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebln = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayOsmera62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebl2Osmera8n = 10Osmera took 8 of 10
S2Sebl4Osmera6n = 10Osmera took 6 of 10
S3Sebl4Osmera6n = 10Osmera took 6 of 10
S4Sebl4Osmera1n = 5Sebl took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeblOsmeraS − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.937.9−4.0per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeblOsmeraBasisWin rate · lifetime293 / 631 vs 264 / 47946.4%55.1%293 / 631 vs 264 / 479Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.639.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsmeraSebl 2.63/Osmera 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.5%
Osmera · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 16 · 19:20J. Sebl—5740J. Osmera—1111113
LAug 12 · 13:25J. Sebl—71570J. Osmera—1117113
WAug 12 · 10:50J. Sebl—1111113J. Osmera—5660
WAug 3 · 09:25J. Sebl—1014712113J. Osmera—1212111062
LJul 5 · 12:20J. Sebl—1311881J. Osmera—111311113
LJun 18 · 12:20J. Sebl—31090J. Osmera—1112113
LJun 16 · 13:40J. Sebl—5580J. Osmera—1111113
WJun 16 · 11:20J. Sebl—51113113J. Osmera—1151191
LJun 12 · 13:54J. Sebl—98111162J. Osmera—111189113
WJun 12 · 11:50J. Sebl—61114113J. Osmera—1191281
J. Sebl10
WSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101WSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123LSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112WSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890WSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl1.67118135113L. Rek2.10411111152WAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551
J. Osmera10
LAug 20 · 10:38M. Filipek1.8381114113J. Osmera1.831191291WAug 20 · 08:55J. Osmera1.73871111143P. Vodal2.00111198122WAug 20 · 07:55J. Osmera1.66911611113B. Budik2.1011811892WAug 18 · 14:00J. Sebl2.14612911J. Osmera1.58111011113WAug 18 · 12:50O. Knazik1.73812881J. Osmera2.00111011113LAug 18 · 11:50J. Osmera1.57513141162J. Sebl2.2511111213113WAug 18 · 10:20T. Jr2.63111181162J. Osmera1.44913119113WAug 17 · 13:23J. Osmera1.3611711113T. Rein3.00611981LAug 17 · 12:50J. Osmera1.8311111061O. Knazik1.8313812113WAug 17 · 10:50T. Rein2.3811561192J. Osmera1.53811117113
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