TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12452013
Played Aug 18Finished
Ondrej Knazik
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111210811811––
Jan Osmera
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Knazik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingOndrej Knazik above · Jan Osmera below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 79 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Ondrej Knazik at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Knazik 24–25 Jan Osmera Ondrej Knazik has won 24 of their 49 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:31What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Knazik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-25 in 49
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Knazik 1575 vs Osmera 1546
Knazik
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Knazik 80% vs Osmera 40%
Knazik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Knazik 70% vs Osmera 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Knazik +1 · Osmera -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Knazik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Knazik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKnazik 1.73 / Osmera 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Knazik)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #12452013
Knazik1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite53% won 86 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it87% 41 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it61% 55 of 90
Osmera2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 43 of 94
Down 0–1, comes back39% 19 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKnazik4wins
AwayOsmera6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderOsmera leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKnazik57.1%4 of 7
AwayOsmera100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Knazik7Osmera3n = 10Knazik took 7 of 10
S2Knazik4Osmera6n = 10Osmera took 6 of 10
S3Knazik4Osmera6n = 10Osmera took 6 of 10
S4Knazik6Osmera3n = 9Knazik took 6 of 9
S5Knazik1Osmera5n = 6Osmera took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKnazikOsmeraK − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match44.642.0+2.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKnazikOsmeraBasisWin rate · lifetime458 / 890 vs 266 / 48451.5%55%458 / 890 vs 266 / 484Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsmeraKnazik 1.73/Osmera 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.7%
Knazik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Osmera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 17 · 12:50O. Knazik—13812113J. Osmera—11111061
LAug 14 · 10:55O. Knazik—11711572J. Osmera—911611113
WAug 12 · 12:50O. Knazik—11118113J. Osmera—781171
WAug 6 · 13:20O. Knazik—1111117123J. Osmera—371311102
LAug 6 · 10:20O. Knazik—11791152J. Osmera—511116113
LJul 19 · 13:25O. Knazik—121111862J. Osmera—142511113
LJul 16 · 09:25O. Knazik—812111192J. Osmera—1110136113
LJul 5 · 10:50O. Knazik—111181192J. Osmera—313117113
WJun 28 · 10:00O. Knazik—141111123J. Osmera—12134101
LJun 28 · 08:25O. Knazik—11890J. Osmera—1311113
O. Knazik10
WSep 3 · 14:39V. Koutnik2.25441161O. Knazik1.5711119113LSep 3 · 13:25T. Hnizdil1.5711118143O. Knazik2.259611121WSep 3 · 12:25O. Knazik1.401111113T. Rein2.753540WSep 3 · 10:55V. Koutnik2.20118971O. Knazik1.6161111113LSep 1 · 21:25O. Knazik2.401113561B. Budik1.5181511113LSep 1 · 20:50O. Knazik1.73961141R. Muller2.0011117113LSep 1 · 19:20J. Dohnal1.612121111113O. Knazik2.20111013982WSep 1 · 18:50B. Budik1.856680O. Knazik1.851111113WAug 31 · 10:03A. Jr2.639980O. Knazik1.441111113LAug 31 · 09:25L. Rek1.91116117113O. Knazik1.8051171192
J. Osmera10
LAug 20 · 10:38M. Filipek1.8381114113J. Osmera1.831191291WAug 20 · 08:55J. Osmera1.73871111143P. Vodal2.00111198122WAug 20 · 07:55J. Osmera1.66911611113B. Budik2.1011811892WAug 18 · 14:00J. Sebl2.14612911J. Osmera1.58111011113LAug 18 · 11:50J. Osmera1.57513141162J. Sebl2.2511111213113WAug 18 · 10:20T. Jr2.63111181162J. Osmera1.44913119113WAug 17 · 13:23J. Osmera1.3611711113T. Rein3.00611981LAug 17 · 12:50J. Osmera1.8311111061O. Knazik1.8313812113LAug 17 · 11:20J. Sebl2.631111113J. Osmera1.448680WAug 17 · 10:50T. Rein2.3811561192J. Osmera1.53811117113
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