TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12452015
Played Aug 18Finished
Tomas Cerveny Jr
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1191113811119611
Jan Osmera
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:34 and never touched — 70.5% is still 70.5%
Graded at full timeJan Osmera to win
70.5%
70.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Cerveny Jr above · Jan Osmera below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 100 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jan Osmera at 70.5%
100 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Cerveny Jr 8–19 Jan Osmera Tomas Cerveny Jr has won 8 of their 27 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:34What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Osmera
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-19 in 27
Osmera
Correct
gap of 11 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1426 vs Osmera 1552
Osmera
Correct
both rated, 126 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 0% vs Osmera 60%
Osmera
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 20% vs Osmera 60%
Osmera
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -5 · Osmera +1
Jr
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Osmera) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.63 / Osmera 1.44
Signal prob.25% / 76%
Edge (Osmera)+11.0pp
TT Cup · #12452015
Jr2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 31 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back10% 5 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 35
Osmera1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 90 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it92% 35 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it70% 59 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr5wins
AwayOsmera5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr60%3 of 5
AwayOsmera60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr5Osmera5n = 10split evenly
S2Jr2Osmera8n = 10Osmera took 8 of 10
S3Jr5Osmera5n = 10split evenly
S4Jr4Osmera2n = 6Jr took 4 of 6
S5Jr2Osmera1n = 3Jr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrOsmeraJ − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.136.4+1.7per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrOsmeraBasisWin rate · lifetime335 / 623 vs 265 / 48253.8%55%335 / 623 vs 265 / 482Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsmeraJr 2.63/Osmera 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.5%
Osmera · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Osmera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 16 · 21:59T. Jr—6980J. Osmera—1111113
LAug 16 · 18:50T. Jr—8780J. Osmera—1111113
WAug 3 · 10:15T. Jr—1112123J. Osmera—210100
LAug 3 · 07:25T. Jr—119111162J. Osmera—311713113
WApr 17 · 13:20T. Jr—111411133J. Osmera—4167111
LApr 17 · 10:50T. Jr—118671J. Osmera—61111113
WApr 7 · 13:54T. Jr—771113113J. Osmera—111161122
LApr 7 · 12:50T. Jr—69130J. Osmera—1111153
WMar 10 · 11:40T. Jr—101112113J. Osmera—1271021
WMar 10 · 08:55T. Jr—147711113J. Osmera—121111382
T. Jr10
WSep 6 · 22:04Z. Vyskocil1.6711111010112T. Jr2.10371212133LSep 6 · 20:55T. Jr1.73116771Z. Vyskocil2.0081111113LSep 6 · 19:55T. Jr2.00811991L. Vich1.7311811113LSep 6 · 18:55T. Jr1.50116471T. Rein2.5091111113WSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530WSep 3 · 12:50J. Vintr2.381111117122T. Jr1.53913511143WSep 3 · 11:50T. Jr1.36121411113P. Cibik3.001016881WSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113WAug 30 · 21:55Z. Vyskocil1.807270T. Jr1.901111113LAug 30 · 20:50T. Jr1.8012514101Z. Vyskocil1.91141112123
J. Osmera10
LAug 20 · 10:38M. Filipek1.8381114113J. Osmera1.831191291WAug 20 · 08:55J. Osmera1.73871111143P. Vodal2.00111198122WAug 20 · 07:55J. Osmera1.66911611113B. Budik2.1011811892WAug 18 · 14:00J. Sebl2.14612911J. Osmera1.58111011113WAug 18 · 12:50O. Knazik1.73812881J. Osmera2.00111011113LAug 18 · 11:50J. Osmera1.57513141162J. Sebl2.2511111213113WAug 17 · 13:23J. Osmera1.3611711113T. Rein3.00611981LAug 17 · 12:50J. Osmera1.8311111061O. Knazik1.8313812113LAug 17 · 11:20J. Sebl2.631111113J. Osmera1.448680WAug 17 · 10:50T. Rein2.3811561192J. Osmera1.53811117113
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