Jan Osmera vs Ondrej Knazik 1-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #12445418

Played Aug 17Finished

Jan Osmera

Home

1.83

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Lost last 1

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

11131181012611––

Ondrej Knazik

Away

1.83

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Ondrej Knazik to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

no pick shipped

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingJan Osmera above · Ondrej Knazik below

Set 1 · 11-13

Set 2 · 11-8

Set 3 · 10-12

Set 4 · 6-11

Point 82 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Ondrej Knazik at 54.0%

82 points played in total.

H2H Jan Osmera 25–23 Ondrej Knazik Ondrej Knazik has won 23 of their 48 meetings.

Last 10 · 7–3Same sideHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 20:23

What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.83 (50%)

Knazik

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

25-23 in 48

Osmera

Wrong

gap of 2 in 48, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Osmera 1554 vs Knazik 1579

Knazik

Correct

both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Osmera 80% vs Knazik 60%

Osmera

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Osmera 70% vs Knazik 60%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Osmera -1 · Knazik +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Knazik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Osmera form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsOsmera 1.83 / Knazik 1.83

Signal prob.46% / 55%

Edge (Knazik)+4.5pp

TT Cup · #12445418

Osmera1.83

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

Knazik1.83

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeOsmera7wins

AwayKnazik3wins

7 of 10 to a deciderOsmera leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeOsmera100%3 of 3

AwayKnazik42.9%3 of 7

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Osmera3Knazik7n = 10Knazik took 7 of 10

S2Osmera6Knazik4n = 10Osmera took 6 of 10

S3Osmera7Knazik3n = 10Osmera took 7 of 10

S4Osmera3Knazik6n = 9Knazik took 6 of 9

S5Osmera6Knazik1n = 7Osmera took 6 of 7

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home660%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricOsmeraKnazikO − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.844.7−1.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricOsmeraKnazikBasisWin rate · lifetime264 / 481 vs 456 / 89054.9%51.2%264 / 481 vs 456 / 890Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.0per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Knazik

Osmera 1.83/Knazik 1.83

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54.5%

Knazik · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Knazik won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WAug 14 · 10:55J. Osmera—911611113O. Knazik—11711572

LAug 12 · 12:50J. Osmera—781171O. Knazik—11118113

LAug 6 · 13:20J. Osmera—371311102O. Knazik—1111117123

WAug 6 · 10:20J. Osmera—511116113O. Knazik—11791152

WJul 19 · 13:25J. Osmera—142511113O. Knazik—121111862

WJul 16 · 09:25J. Osmera—1110136113O. Knazik—812111192

WJul 5 · 10:50J. Osmera—313117113O. Knazik—111181192

LJun 28 · 10:00J. Osmera—12134101O. Knazik—141111123

WJun 28 · 08:25J. Osmera—1311113O. Knazik—11890

WJun 18 · 10:50J. Osmera—611117113O. Knazik—11791172

J. Osmera10

LAug 20 · 10:38M. Filipek1.8381114113J. Osmera1.831191291 WAug 20 · 08:55J. Osmera1.73871111143P. Vodal2.00111198122 WAug 20 · 07:55J. Osmera1.66911611113B. Budik2.1011811892 WAug 18 · 14:00J. Sebl2.14612911J. Osmera1.58111011113 WAug 18 · 12:50O. Knazik1.73812881J. Osmera2.00111011113 LAug 18 · 11:50J. Osmera1.57513141162J. Sebl2.2511111213113 WAug 18 · 10:20T. Jr2.63111181162J. Osmera1.44913119113 WAug 17 · 13:23J. Osmera1.3611711113T. Rein3.00611981 LAug 17 · 11:20J. Sebl2.631111113J. Osmera1.448680 WAug 17 · 10:50T. Rein2.3811561192J. Osmera1.53811117113

O. Knazik10

WSep 3 · 14:39V. Koutnik2.25441161O. Knazik1.5711119113 LSep 3 · 13:25T. Hnizdil1.5711118143O. Knazik2.259611121 WSep 3 · 12:25O. Knazik1.401111113T. Rein2.753540 WSep 3 · 10:55V. Koutnik2.20118971O. Knazik1.6161111113 LSep 1 · 21:25O. Knazik2.401113561B. Budik1.5181511113 LSep 1 · 20:50O. Knazik1.73961141R. Muller2.0011117113 LSep 1 · 19:20J. Dohnal1.612121111113O. Knazik2.20111013982 WSep 1 · 18:50B. Budik1.856680O. Knazik1.851111113 WAug 31 · 10:03A. Jr2.639980O. Knazik1.441111113 LAug 18 · 12:50O. Knazik1.73812881J. Osmera2.00111011113

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