TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13099927
Played Sep 8Finished
Jan Osmera
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911116117118––
Christian Kratochvil
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:48 and never touched — 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeJan Osmera to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Osmera above · Christian Kratochvil below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 74 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jan Osmera at 58.3%
74 points played in total.
H2H Jan Osmera 14–9 Christian Kratochvil Christian Kratochvil has won 9 of their 23 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Osmera beat Kratochvil 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:48What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Osmera
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-9 in 23
Osmera
Correct
gap of 5 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osmera 1580 vs Kratochvil 1471
Osmera
Correct
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osmera 60% vs Kratochvil 40%
Osmera
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osmera 70% vs Kratochvil 50%
Osmera
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Osmera +2 · Kratochvil -3
Kratochvil
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Osmera) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsmera 1.73 / Kratochvil 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Osmera)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13099927
Osmera1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 71 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it90% 28 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it76% 48 of 63
Kratochvil2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog53% won 18 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back32% 6 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOsmera6wins
AwayKratochvil4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderOsmera leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsmera60%3 of 5
AwayKratochvil40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osmera5Kratochvil5n = 10split evenly
S2Osmera6Kratochvil4n = 10Osmera took 6 of 10
S3Osmera7Kratochvil3n = 10Osmera took 7 of 10
S4Osmera3Kratochvil6n = 9Kratochvil took 6 of 9
S5Osmera3Kratochvil2n = 5Osmera took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOsmeraKratochvilO − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.939.7+0.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsmeraKratochvilBasisWin rate · lifetime265 / 477 vs 237 / 42155.6%56.3%265 / 477 vs 237 / 421Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsmeraOsmera 1.73/Kratochvil 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Osmera · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Osmera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 15:55J. Osmera—511411113C. Kratochvil—11911992
WMay 23 · 18:35J. Osmera—91111123C. Kratochvil—1145101
WMay 23 · 15:25J. Osmera—1111113C. Kratochvil—2560
WMay 13 · 12:20J. Osmera—41111123C. Kratochvil—1168101
LMay 10 · 19:25J. Osmera—117971C. Kratochvil—31111113
WMay 10 · 15:25J. Osmera—116123113C. Kratochvil—611101192
LMay 6 · 10:50J. Osmera—11111171C. Kratochvil—13134113
WApr 22 · 12:55J. Osmera—111136113C. Kratochvil—78111182
LApr 9 · 14:30J. Osmera—12711682C. Kratochvil—1011811113
LApr 9 · 12:25J. Osmera—51111762C. Kratochvil—118911113
J. Osmera10
WSep 8 · 16:55J. Osmera1.53811116113A. Jr2.3811871172WSep 8 · 15:55J. Osmera1.73511411113C. Kratochvil2.0011911992LSep 8 · 14:55J. Osmera1.619114131V. Koutnik2.2011911153LAug 20 · 10:38M. Filipek1.8381114113J. Osmera1.831191291WAug 20 · 08:55J. Osmera1.73871111143P. Vodal2.00111198122WAug 20 · 07:55J. Osmera1.66911611113B. Budik2.1011811892WAug 18 · 14:00J. Sebl2.14612911J. Osmera1.58111011113WAug 18 · 12:50O. Knazik1.73812881J. Osmera2.00111011113LAug 18 · 11:50J. Osmera1.57513141162J. Sebl2.2511111213113WAug 18 · 10:20T. Jr2.63111181162J. Osmera1.44913119113
C. Kratochvil10
LSep 8 · 17:25C. Kratochvil1.7310840V. Koutnik2.001211113LSep 8 · 15:55J. Osmera1.73511411113C. Kratochvil2.0011911992LSep 8 · 15:25A. Jr2.2011711113C. Kratochvil1.61911291WAug 31 · 22:25C. Kratochvil1.9012811123M. Juhasz1.8010119101WAug 31 · 21:25C. Kratochvil1.571111113Z. Vyskocil2.259950WAug 31 · 19:55M. Juhasz1.6111128141C. Kratochvil2.2051411163LAug 31 · 19:25T. Barsa1.80811118113C. Kratochvil1.9111781192LAug 19 · 22:35C. Kratochvil3.1567111182T. Barsa1.30111179113WAug 19 · 20:55M. Zajicek1.61119115152C. Kratochvil2.20811911173WAug 19 · 20:25Z. Vyskocil2.25891171C. Kratochvil1.5711117113
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