TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13098054
Played Sep 8Finished
Jan Osmera
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111194111315––
Vojtech Koutnik
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:44 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeJan Osmera to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Osmera above · Vojtech Koutnik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 13-15
Point 83 set 4, 13-15 — our read held Jan Osmera at 57.7%
83 points played in total.
H2H Jan Osmera 11–10 Vojtech Koutnik Vojtech Koutnik has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:44What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Osmera
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-10 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osmera 1569 vs Koutnik 1546
Osmera
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osmera 80% vs Koutnik 60%
Osmera
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osmera 60% vs Koutnik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Osmera -1 · Koutnik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Osmera)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koutnik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsmera 1.61 / Koutnik 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Osmera)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13098054
Osmera1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 71 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it90% 28 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it76% 48 of 63
Koutnik2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 48 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back37% 20 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOsmera5wins
AwayKoutnik5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsmera50%3 of 6
AwayKoutnik50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osmera6Koutnik4n = 10Osmera took 6 of 10
S2Osmera6Koutnik4n = 10Osmera took 6 of 10
S3Osmera2Koutnik8n = 10Koutnik took 8 of 10
S4Osmera3Koutnik5n = 8Koutnik took 5 of 8
S5Osmera3Koutnik1n = 4Osmera took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOsmeraKoutnikO − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.839.7−0.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsmeraKoutnikBasisWin rate · lifetime270 / 489 vs 154 / 33555.2%46%270 / 489 vs 154 / 335Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsmeraOsmera 1.61/Koutnik 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Osmera · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Koutnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 19 · 10:24J. Osmera—1110881V. Koutnik—91211113
LJul 19 · 09:25J. Osmera—8480V. Koutnik—1111113
WJun 28 · 12:25J. Osmera—11117113V. Koutnik—961141
WJun 20 · 10:34J. Osmera—8111011113V. Koutnik—11512892
LJun 20 · 07:55J. Osmera—1410691V. Koutnik—121211113
WMay 10 · 18:30J. Osmera—911811113V. Koutnik—11511582
WMay 10 · 16:25J. Osmera—1111113V. Koutnik—7880
LMar 20 · 15:40J. Osmera—891181V. Koutnik—11119113
WMar 20 · 12:25J. Osmera—131183113V. Koutnik—117111162
LMar 20 · 11:05J. Osmera—11115362V. Koutnik—791111113
J. Osmera10
LAug 20 · 10:38M. Filipek1.8381114113J. Osmera1.831191291WAug 20 · 08:55J. Osmera1.73871111143P. Vodal2.00111198122WAug 20 · 07:55J. Osmera1.66911611113B. Budik2.1011811892WAug 18 · 14:00J. Sebl2.14612911J. Osmera1.58111011113WAug 18 · 12:50O. Knazik1.73812881J. Osmera2.00111011113LAug 18 · 11:50J. Osmera1.57513141162J. Sebl2.2511111213113WAug 18 · 10:20T. Jr2.63111181162J. Osmera1.44913119113WAug 17 · 13:23J. Osmera1.3611711113T. Rein3.00611981LAug 17 · 12:50J. Osmera1.8311111061O. Knazik1.8313812113LAug 17 · 11:20J. Sebl2.631111113J. Osmera1.448680
V. Koutnik10
LSep 3 · 14:39V. Koutnik2.25441161O. Knazik1.5711119113WSep 3 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.611181110113T. Rein2.2091181272WSep 3 · 11:55V. Koutnik2.751211113T. Hnizdil1.4010460LSep 3 · 10:55V. Koutnik2.20118971O. Knazik1.6161111113WAug 26 · 14:35F. Dvorak1.4581070V. Koutnik2.601112113WAug 26 · 13:25A. Jr2.50119661V. Koutnik1.5091111113LAug 26 · 12:25V. Koutnik2.63671181F. Dvorak1.4411116113WAug 26 · 10:55T. Rein2.2581111872V. Koutnik1.57118311113WAug 25 · 14:10S. Matousch2.268850V. Koutnik1.521111113LAug 25 · 12:50T. Jr2.381011814113V. Koutnik1.53128111252
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