TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13051908
Played Aug 31Finished
Tomas Barsa
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811117118811119
Christian Kratochvil
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Barsa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Barsa above · Christian Kratochvil below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Tomas Barsa at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Barsa 5–1 Christian Kratochvil Christian Kratochvil has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:25What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Barsa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Barsa
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Barsa 1501 vs Kratochvil 1489
Barsa
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Barsa 20% vs Kratochvil 60%
Kratochvil
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Barsa 50% vs Kratochvil 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Barsa -4 · Kratochvil -1
Barsa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Barsa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Barsa form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBarsa 1.80 / Kratochvil 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Barsa)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13051908
Barsa1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 59 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it89% 25 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it68% 38 of 56
Kratochvil1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog52% won 16 of 31
Down 0–1, comes back28% 5 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeBarsa5wins
AwayKratochvil1wins
2 of 6 to a deciderBarsa leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBarsa100%5 of 5
AwayKratochviln = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Barsa5Kratochvil1n = 6Barsa took 5 of 6
S2Barsa4Kratochvil2n = 6Barsa took 4 of 6
S3Barsa4Kratochvil2n = 6Barsa took 4 of 6
S4Barsa1Kratochvil2n = 3Kratochvil took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home350%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricBarsaKratochvilB − KBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match39.733.5+6.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBarsaKratochvilBasisWin rate · lifetime88 / 158 vs 239 / 41955.7%57%88 / 158 vs 239 / 419Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BarsaBarsa 1.80/Kratochvil 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Barsa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Barsa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 19 · 22:35T. Barsa—111179113C. Kratochvil—67111182
LAug 19 · 19:25T. Barsa—9912111C. Kratochvil—111110133
WJul 31 · 19:25T. Barsa—1111113C. Kratochvil—9860
WJul 20 · 22:25T. Barsa—1111113C. Kratochvil—8660
WJul 20 · 20:25T. Barsa—1111113C. Kratochvil—9790
WJul 13 · 18:50T. Barsa—1141211113C. Kratochvil—31114982
T. Barsa10
LSep 2 · 22:35T. Barsa1.48111281182Z. Vyskocil2.455101113113WSep 2 · 21:25Z. Vyskocil2.5091211672T. Barsa1.501110911113WSep 2 · 20:25T. Barsa1.7313119133M. Juhasz2.0011911111WSep 2 · 18:55L. Vich2.205380T. Barsa1.611111113WAug 31 · 21:53T. Barsa1.5011711113Z. Vyskocil2.50811581LAug 31 · 20:55M. Juhasz2.2011411113T. Barsa1.61611961WAug 31 · 20:25Z. Vyskocil2.3861111182T. Barsa1.53111128113LAug 27 · 21:28Z. Dusek2.2511135113T. Barsa1.578111171LAug 27 · 20:20T. Jr2.20118119113T. Barsa1.6141191182LAug 27 · 19:50Z. Dusek2.38118411113T. Barsa1.5361111562
C. Kratochvil10
WAug 31 · 22:25C. Kratochvil1.9012811123M. Juhasz1.8010119101WAug 31 · 21:25C. Kratochvil1.571111113Z. Vyskocil2.259950WAug 31 · 19:55M. Juhasz1.6111128141C. Kratochvil2.2051411163LAug 19 · 22:35C. Kratochvil3.1567111182T. Barsa1.30111179113WAug 19 · 20:55M. Zajicek1.61119115152C. Kratochvil2.20811911173WAug 19 · 20:25Z. Vyskocil2.25891171C. Kratochvil1.5711117113WAug 19 · 19:25C. Kratochvil2.20111110133T. Barsa1.619912111LJul 31 · 22:00C. Kratochvil1.67511681L. Vich2.1011711113WJul 31 · 21:25C. Kratochvil1.5741414133L. Vich2.25111212111WJul 31 · 19:55T. Jr2.0011991172C. Kratochvil1.73711119113
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