TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12459013
Played Aug 19Finished
Christian Kratochvil
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11911910121311––
Tomas Barsa
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Barsa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingChristian Kratochvil above · Tomas Barsa below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 86 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Tomas Barsa at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Christian Kratochvil 0–4 Tomas Barsa Christian Kratochvil has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:59What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Barsa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-4 in 4
Barsa
Wrong
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kratochvil 1438 vs Barsa 1561
Barsa
Wrong
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kratochvil 40% vs Barsa 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kratochvil 40% vs Barsa 70%
Barsa
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kratochvil -1 · Barsa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Barsa) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Barsa form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKratochvil 2.20 / Barsa 1.61
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Barsa)+7.0pp
TT Cup · #12459013
Kratochvil2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
As underdog50% won 14 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back25% 4 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Barsa1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 55 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it88% 22 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it66% 36 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKratochvil0wins
AwayBarsa4wins
1 of 4 to a deciderBarsa leads 4–0, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKratochviln = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayBarsa100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kratochvil0Barsa4n = 4Barsa took 4 of 4
S2Kratochvil1Barsa3n = 4Barsa took 3 of 4
S3Kratochvil1Barsa3n = 4Barsa took 3 of 4
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away375%
These 4 meetings
MetricKratochvilBarsaK − BBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set04−4of 4Avg pointsper match28.237.0−8.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKratochvilBarsaBasisWin rate · lifetime240 / 423 vs 82 / 14656.7%56.2%240 / 423 vs 82 / 146Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BarsaKratochvil 2.20/Barsa 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.7%
Barsa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kratochvil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJul 31 · 19:25C. Kratochvil—9860T. Barsa—1111113
LJul 20 · 22:25C. Kratochvil—8660T. Barsa—1111113
LJul 20 · 20:25C. Kratochvil—9790T. Barsa—1111113
LJul 13 · 18:50C. Kratochvil—31114982T. Barsa—1141211113
C. Kratochvil10
WAug 31 · 22:25C. Kratochvil1.9012811123M. Juhasz1.8010119101WAug 31 · 21:25C. Kratochvil1.571111113Z. Vyskocil2.259950WAug 31 · 19:55M. Juhasz1.6111128141C. Kratochvil2.2051411163LAug 31 · 19:25T. Barsa1.80811118113C. Kratochvil1.9111781192LAug 19 · 22:35C. Kratochvil3.1567111182T. Barsa1.30111179113WAug 19 · 20:55M. Zajicek1.61119115152C. Kratochvil2.20811911173WAug 19 · 20:25Z. Vyskocil2.25891171C. Kratochvil1.5711117113LJul 31 · 22:00C. Kratochvil1.67511681L. Vich2.1011711113WJul 31 · 21:25C. Kratochvil1.5741414133L. Vich2.25111212111WJul 31 · 19:55T. Jr2.0011991172C. Kratochvil1.73711119113
T. Barsa10
LSep 2 · 22:35T. Barsa1.48111281182Z. Vyskocil2.455101113113WSep 2 · 21:25Z. Vyskocil2.5091211672T. Barsa1.501110911113WSep 2 · 20:25T. Barsa1.7313119133M. Juhasz2.0011911111WSep 2 · 18:55L. Vich2.205380T. Barsa1.611111113WAug 31 · 21:53T. Barsa1.5011711113Z. Vyskocil2.50811581LAug 31 · 20:55M. Juhasz2.2011411113T. Barsa1.61611961WAug 31 · 20:25Z. Vyskocil2.3861111182T. Barsa1.53111128113WAug 31 · 19:25T. Barsa1.80811118113C. Kratochvil1.9111781192LAug 27 · 21:28Z. Dusek2.2511135113T. Barsa1.578111171WAug 19 · 22:35C. Kratochvil3.1567111182T. Barsa1.30111179113
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