TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12338900
Played Jul 31Finished
Tomas Cerveny Jr
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117911911119711
Christian Kratochvil
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeChristian Kratochvil to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Cerveny Jr above · Christian Kratochvil below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 96 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Christian Kratochvil at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Cerveny Jr 12–11 Christian Kratochvil Christian Kratochvil has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:34What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kratochvil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-11 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1427 vs Kratochvil 1432
Kratochvil
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 40% vs Kratochvil 20%
Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 40% vs Kratochvil 20%
Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +2 · Kratochvil -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jr) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kratochvil form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.00 / Kratochvil 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jr)+7.7pp
TT Cup · #12338900
Jr2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 26 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back5% 2 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 31
Kratochvil1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
As favourite53% won 64 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it97% 33 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it81% 48 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr3wins
AwayKratochvil7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKratochvil leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr60%3 of 5
AwayKratochvil100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr5Kratochvil5n = 10split evenly
S2Jr5Kratochvil5n = 10split evenly
S3Jr3Kratochvil7n = 10Kratochvil took 7 of 10
S4Jr4Kratochvil4n = 8split evenly
S5Jr1Kratochvil3n = 4Kratochvil took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrKratochvilJ − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.040.6−2.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrKratochvilBasisWin rate · lifetime336 / 616 vs 238 / 42254.6%56.4%336 / 616 vs 238 / 422Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 2.00/Kratochvil 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kratochvil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WApr 28 · 11:50T. Jr—1110811113C. Kratochvil—61211762
LApr 19 · 14:50T. Jr—11511492C. Kratochvil—911511113
LMar 31 · 12:20T. Jr—91251692C. Kratochvil—11101114113
LDec 29 · 20:55T. Jr—811471C. Kratochvil—11711113
LDec 12 · 18:55T. Jr—91171372C. Kratochvil—1191111113
LDec 12 · 17:50T. Jr—6116101C. Kratochvil—11511123
LDec 12 · 11:50T. Jr—1151561C. Kratochvil—21117113
WDec 6 · 15:20T. Jr—111163C. Kratochvil—7710
WNov 22 · 15:50T. Jr—11911123C. Kratochvil—8119111
LOct 11 · 20:20T. Jr—7490C. Kratochvil—1111113
T. Jr10
WSep 6 · 22:04Z. Vyskocil1.6711111010112T. Jr2.10371212133LSep 6 · 20:55T. Jr1.73116771Z. Vyskocil2.0081111113LSep 6 · 19:55T. Jr2.00811991L. Vich1.7311811113LSep 6 · 18:55T. Jr1.50116471T. Rein2.5091111113WSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530WSep 3 · 12:50J. Vintr2.381111117122T. Jr1.53913511143WSep 3 · 11:50T. Jr1.36121411113P. Cibik3.001016881WSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113WAug 30 · 21:55Z. Vyskocil1.807270T. Jr1.901111113LAug 30 · 20:50T. Jr1.8012514101Z. Vyskocil1.91141112123
C. Kratochvil10
WAug 31 · 22:25C. Kratochvil1.9012811123M. Juhasz1.8010119101WAug 31 · 21:25C. Kratochvil1.571111113Z. Vyskocil2.259950WAug 31 · 19:55M. Juhasz1.6111128141C. Kratochvil2.2051411163LAug 31 · 19:25T. Barsa1.80811118113C. Kratochvil1.9111781192LAug 19 · 22:35C. Kratochvil3.1567111182T. Barsa1.30111179113WAug 19 · 20:55M. Zajicek1.61119115152C. Kratochvil2.20811911173WAug 19 · 20:25Z. Vyskocil2.25891171C. Kratochvil1.5711117113WAug 19 · 19:25C. Kratochvil2.20111110133T. Barsa1.619912111LJul 31 · 22:00C. Kratochvil1.67511681L. Vich2.1011711113WJul 31 · 21:25C. Kratochvil1.5741414133L. Vich2.25111212111
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