TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13099926
Played Sep 8Finished
Ales Brandtl Jr
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
51110121210811––
Vojtech Koutnik
Away
1.60
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:48 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koutnik to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Brandtl Jr above · Vojtech Koutnik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 79 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Vojtech Koutnik at 56.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Ales Brandtl Jr 9–11 Vojtech Koutnik Ales Brandtl Jr has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Jr beat Koutnik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:48What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Koutnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-11 in 20
Koutnik
Correct
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1439 vs Koutnik 1554
Koutnik
Correct
both rated, 116 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 40% vs Koutnik 60%
Koutnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 40% vs Koutnik 60%
Koutnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -1 · Koutnik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Koutnik) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.20 / Koutnik 1.60
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Koutnik)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13099926
Jr2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 78 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back29% 31 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 61
Koutnik1.60
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 34 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it67% 24 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr3wins
AwayKoutnik7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKoutnik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr0%0 of 4
AwayKoutnik50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr4Koutnik6n = 10Koutnik took 6 of 10
S2Jr4Koutnik6n = 10Koutnik took 6 of 10
S3Jr2Koutnik8n = 10Koutnik took 8 of 10
S4Jr5Koutnik4n = 9Jr took 5 of 9
S5Jr2Koutnik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrKoutnikJ − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.843.8−5.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrKoutnikBasisWin rate · lifetime252 / 536 vs 156 / 33847%46.2%252 / 536 vs 156 / 338Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoutnikJr 2.20/Koutnik 1.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.1%
Koutnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Koutnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 16:25A. Jr—71114123V. Koutnik—11712101
LAug 26 · 13:25A. Jr—119661V. Koutnik—91111113
LAug 20 · 11:25A. Jr—6990V. Koutnik—1111113
LAug 10 · 18:00A. Jr—11891192V. Koutnik—911118113
LAug 10 · 16:50A. Jr—11711142V. Koutnik—911117113
WJul 17 · 18:29A. Jr—713611113V. Koutnik—111111892
WJul 17 · 16:55A. Jr—511511113V. Koutnik—11811682
LJun 26 · 18:35A. Jr—1011971V. Koutnik—12311113
LJun 26 · 16:25A. Jr—1191071V. Koutnik—91112113
LJun 21 · 14:00A. Jr—1771161V. Koutnik—19119113
A. Jr10
LSep 8 · 16:55J. Osmera1.53811116113A. Jr2.3811871172WSep 8 · 16:25V. Koutnik1.5311712101A. Jr2.3871114123WSep 8 · 15:25A. Jr2.2011711113C. Kratochvil1.61911291LSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143LSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123WSep 6 · 10:55A. Jr2.001181111113L. Rek1.7313115772LSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113LSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193
V. Koutnik10
WSep 8 · 17:25C. Kratochvil1.7310840V. Koutnik2.001211113LSep 8 · 16:25V. Koutnik1.5311712101A. Jr2.3871114123WSep 8 · 14:55J. Osmera1.619114131V. Koutnik2.2011911153LSep 3 · 14:39V. Koutnik2.25441161O. Knazik1.5711119113WSep 3 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.611181110113T. Rein2.2091181272WSep 3 · 11:55V. Koutnik2.751211113T. Hnizdil1.4010460LSep 3 · 10:55V. Koutnik2.20118971O. Knazik1.6161111113WAug 26 · 14:35F. Dvorak1.4581070V. Koutnik2.601112113WAug 26 · 13:25A. Jr2.50119661V. Koutnik1.5091111113LAug 26 · 12:25V. Koutnik2.63671181F. Dvorak1.4411116113
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