TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13101514
Played Sep 9Finished
Frantisek Dvorak
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118116118––––
Ales Brandtl Jr
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:49 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Dvorak to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Dvorak above · Ales Brandtl Jr below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 55 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Frantisek Dvorak at 56.1%
55 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Dvorak 9–12 Ales Brandtl Jr Frantisek Dvorak has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:49What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dvorak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-12 in 21
Jr
Wrong
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1511 vs Jr 1430
Dvorak
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 40% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 50% vs Jr 30%
Dvorak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak -2 · Jr -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Dvorak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.73 / Jr 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Dvorak)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13101514
Dvorak1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 45 of 70
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it91% 32 of 35
Jr2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog44% won 80 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back29% 32 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDvorak5wins
AwayJr5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak80%4 of 5
AwayJr80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S2Dvorak7Jr3n = 10Dvorak took 7 of 10
S3Dvorak5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S4Dvorak4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S5Dvorak3Jr4n = 7Jr took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDvorakJrD − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.344.8−1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakJrBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 304 vs 252 / 53754.3%46.9%165 / 304 vs 252 / 537Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakDvorak 1.73/Jr 2.00
Hit
What we said
56.1%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 11:25F. Dvorak—51191182A. Jr—118112113
WAug 20 · 14:35F. Dvorak—9111213133A. Jr—1161411112
LAug 20 · 13:25F. Dvorak—391691A. Jr—111114113
WAug 13 · 11:20F. Dvorak—13118113A. Jr—1181181
LAug 5 · 14:28F. Dvorak—11511562A. Jr—711711113
WAug 5 · 11:25F. Dvorak—111183113A. Jr—77111162
LJul 16 · 08:55F. Dvorak—81111362A. Jr—119511113
LMay 27 · 12:50F. Dvorak—101112772A. Jr—1271011113
WApr 29 · 15:50F. Dvorak—111133113A. Jr—87111172
WMar 11 · 13:50F. Dvorak—13713113A. Jr—11111131
F. Dvorak10
WSep 9 · 12:20F. Dvorak1.4416119113T. Jr2.631461191LSep 9 · 10:20F. Dvorak3.2517170T. Hnizdil1.331911113LAug 26 · 14:35F. Dvorak1.4581070V. Koutnik2.601112113WAug 26 · 12:55T. Rein3.005920F. Dvorak1.361111113WAug 26 · 12:25V. Koutnik2.63671181F. Dvorak1.4411116113LAug 26 · 11:25F. Dvorak1.5751191182A. Jr2.25118112113WAug 20 · 14:35A. Jr2.001161411112F. Dvorak1.739111213133LAug 20 · 13:25A. Jr2.38111114113F. Dvorak1.53391691WAug 20 · 12:25F. Dvorak1.50121110123V. Koutnik2.5010512101WAug 20 · 10:55T. Rein2.7589120F. Dvorak1.401111143
A. Jr10
LSep 9 · 10:50T. Jr2.001111411113A. Jr1.7313911972LSep 8 · 18:25A. Jr2.205101281V. Koutnik1.60111210113LSep 8 · 16:55J. Osmera1.53811116113A. Jr2.3811871172WSep 8 · 16:25V. Koutnik1.5311712101A. Jr2.3871114123WSep 8 · 15:25A. Jr2.2011711113C. Kratochvil1.61911291LSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143WAug 26 · 11:25F. Dvorak1.5751191182A. Jr2.25118112113LAug 20 · 14:35A. Jr2.001161411112F. Dvorak1.739111213133WAug 20 · 13:25A. Jr2.38111114113F. Dvorak1.53391691
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