TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13101517
Played Sep 9Finished
Frantisek Dvorak
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1719111711––––
Tomas Hnizdil
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:50 and never touched — 71.7% is still 71.7%
Graded at full timeTomas Hnizdil to win
71.7%
71.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Dvorak above · Tomas Hnizdil below
Set 1 · 17-19
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 66 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Tomas Hnizdil at 71.7%
66 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Dvorak 1–3 Tomas Hnizdil Frantisek Dvorak has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:50What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Hnizdil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Hnizdil
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1523 vs Hnizdil 1578
Hnizdil
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 60% vs Hnizdil 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 50% vs Hnizdil 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak -1 · Hnizdil -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Hnizdil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hnizdil form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 3.25 / Hnizdil 1.33
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Hnizdil)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13101517
Dvorak3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 16 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back14% 3 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Hnizdil1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 44 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it87% 32 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeDvorak1wins
AwayHnizdil3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderHnizdil leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorakn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayHnizdil75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak0Hnizdil4n = 4Hnizdil took 4 of 4
S2Dvorak0Hnizdil4n = 4Hnizdil took 4 of 4
S3Dvorak1Hnizdil3n = 4Hnizdil took 3 of 4
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away375%
These 4 meetings
MetricDvorakHnizdilD − HBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set04−4of 4Avg pointsper match30.537.0−6.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakHnizdilBasisWin rate · lifetime174 / 315 vs 146 / 25555.2%57.3%174 / 315 vs 146 / 255Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HnizdilDvorak 3.25/Hnizdil 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.7%
Hnizdil · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hnizdil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJan 29 · 11:35F. Dvorak—11490T. Hnizdil—1311113
LJan 29 · 09:25F. Dvorak—9560T. Hnizdil—1111113
WOct 27 · 08:20F. Dvorak—991313113T. Hnizdil—1111111142
LAug 23 · 07:50F. Dvorak—8960T. Hnizdil—1111103
F. Dvorak10
LAug 26 · 14:35F. Dvorak1.4581070V. Koutnik2.601112113WAug 26 · 12:55T. Rein3.005920F. Dvorak1.361111113WAug 26 · 12:25V. Koutnik2.63671181F. Dvorak1.4411116113LAug 26 · 11:25F. Dvorak1.5751191182A. Jr2.25118112113WAug 20 · 14:35A. Jr2.001161411112F. Dvorak1.739111213133LAug 20 · 13:25A. Jr2.38111114113F. Dvorak1.53391691WAug 20 · 12:25F. Dvorak1.50121110123V. Koutnik2.5010512101WAug 20 · 10:55T. Rein2.7589120F. Dvorak1.401111143LAug 19 · 13:33B. Budik1.7381111113F. Dvorak2.00115781LAug 19 · 12:20J. Sebl2.1011611123F. Dvorak1.678119101
T. Hnizdil10
LSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143WSep 6 · 12:25L. Rek2.755970T. Hnizdil1.401111113WSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112LSep 6 · 09:35B. Budik1.441111113T. Hnizdil2.608890WSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113LSep 6 · 07:50P. Vodal3.75116118113T. Hnizdil1.2581171192LSep 6 · 06:50T. Hnizdil1.5791461182B. Budik2.251112118113LSep 5 · 10:50B. Budik2.009111011113T. Hnizdil1.7211512672WSep 5 · 09:25T. Hnizdil1.571111911113B. Budik2.2591311872
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