TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13029132
Played Aug 27Finished
Petr Kubat
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117114911118––
Petr Vodal
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:48 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timePetr Vodal to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingPetr Kubat above · Petr Vodal below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Petr Vodal at 57.4%
72 points played in total.
H2H Petr Kubat 4–1 Petr Vodal Petr Vodal has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:48What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vodal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Kubat
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubat 1360 vs Vodal 1467
Vodal
Wrong
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubat 0% vs Vodal 20%
Vodal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubat 20% vs Vodal 50%
Vodal
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubat -5 · Vodal -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Vodal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vodal form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubat 2.10 / Vodal 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Vodal)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13029132
Kubat2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 15 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back10% 3 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Vodal1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite52% won 49 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it91% 20 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it74% 34 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKubat4wins
AwayVodal1wins
3 of 5 to a deciderKubat leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubatn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayVodal25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubat1Vodal4n = 5Vodal took 4 of 5
S2Kubat2Vodal3n = 5Vodal took 3 of 5
S3Kubat3Vodal2n = 5Kubat took 3 of 5
S4Kubat4Vodal1n = 5Kubat took 4 of 5
S5Kubat3Vodal0n = 3Kubat took 3 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home360%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKubatVodalK − VBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match44.041.2+2.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubatVodalBasisWin rate · lifetime88 / 245 vs 245 / 47835.9%51.3%88 / 245 vs 245 / 478Avg sets wonper match1.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VodalKubat 2.10/Vodal 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.4%
Vodal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kubat won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 12 · 17:55P. Kubat—13515113P. Vodal—11111381
LAug 12 · 15:50P. Kubat—9114101P. Vodal—11511123
WOct 18 · 10:20P. Kubat—811812103P. Vodal—116111082
WAug 7 · 06:20P. Kubat—1041111113P. Vodal—12118852
WAug 2 · 12:25P. Kubat—941111113P. Vodal—11114352
P. Kubat10
WAug 27 · 17:25P. Kubat1.9114711143P. Vodal1.8012119121LAug 27 · 15:20A. Jr2.7551111113P. Kubat1.40119661LAug 27 · 14:50T. Rein1.331111113P. Kubat3.253540LAug 25 · 21:55M. Boltik1.57149118123P. Kubat2.251211411102LAug 25 · 21:25P. Kubat2.255990J. Cousin1.571111113LAug 25 · 19:55M. Boltik1.731111119113P. Kubat2.0019131142LAug 25 · 19:25L. Jirka1.501111113P. Kubat2.502520WAug 14 · 13:30P. Kubat1.36119611113A. Jr3.0061111292LAug 14 · 12:50P. Kubat2.0011126562P. Vodal1.739101111113LAug 14 · 11:20T. Rein1.3311118113P. Kubat3.25681151
P. Vodal10
LSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192WSep 6 · 08:50B. Budik1.5361181192P. Vodal2.38117119113WSep 6 · 07:50P. Vodal3.75116118113T. Hnizdil1.2581171192LSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962LSep 5 · 10:20T. Rein1.73771211113P. Vodal2.00111110972LSep 5 · 08:55T. Rein1.80141114163P. Vodal1.91121312141LSep 5 · 08:25B. Budik1.671111113P. Vodal2.105690LSep 5 · 07:25P. Vodal3.4011680T. Hnizdil1.301311113LAug 27 · 17:25P. Kubat1.9114711143P. Vodal1.8012119121WAug 14 · 12:50P. Kubat2.0011126562P. Vodal1.739101111113
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