TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13029138
Played Aug 27Finished
Ales Brandtl Jr
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511119116116––
Petr Kubat
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:49 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timePetr Kubat to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAles Brandtl Jr above · Petr Kubat below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 70 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Petr Kubat at 66.3%
70 points played in total.
H2H Ales Brandtl Jr 0–3 Petr Kubat Ales Brandtl Jr has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:49What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kubat
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Kubat
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1391 vs Kubat 1371
Jr
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 40% vs Kubat 0%
Jr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 40% vs Kubat 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +1 · Kubat -5
Kubat
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Kubat)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubat form (0%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.75 / Kubat 1.40
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Kubat)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13029138
Jr2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 72 of 167
Down 0–1, comes back28% 29 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 58
Kubat1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 5 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeJr0wins
AwayKubat3wins
1 of 3 to a deciderKubat leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJrn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayKubat100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr0Kubat3n = 3Kubat took 3 of 3
S2Jr1Kubat2n = 3Kubat took 2 of 3
S3Jr1Kubat2n = 3Kubat took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricJrKubatJ − KBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match27.038.7−11.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrKubatBasisWin rate · lifetime251 / 538 vs 88 / 24446.7%36.1%251 / 538 vs 88 / 244Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KubatJr 2.75/Kubat 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.3%
Kubat · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 14 · 13:30A. Jr—61111292P. Kubat—119611113
LAug 14 · 10:50A. Jr—51160P. Kubat—1113113
LAug 12 · 16:20A. Jr—8660P. Kubat—1111113
A. Jr10
LSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143LSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123WSep 6 · 10:55A. Jr2.001181111113L. Rek1.7313115772LSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113LSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 11:25A. Jr2.381111113L. Rek1.538780LAug 31 · 10:03A. Jr2.639980O. Knazik1.441111113LAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551
P. Kubat10
WAug 27 · 17:25P. Kubat1.9114711143P. Vodal1.8012119121WAug 27 · 16:50P. Kubat2.1011119113P. Vodal1.67741181LAug 27 · 14:50T. Rein1.331111113P. Kubat3.253540LAug 25 · 21:55M. Boltik1.57149118123P. Kubat2.251211411102LAug 25 · 21:25P. Kubat2.255990J. Cousin1.571111113LAug 25 · 19:55M. Boltik1.731111119113P. Kubat2.0019131142LAug 25 · 19:25L. Jirka1.501111113P. Kubat2.502520WAug 14 · 13:30P. Kubat1.36119611113A. Jr3.0061111292LAug 14 · 12:50P. Kubat2.0011126562P. Vodal1.739101111113LAug 14 · 11:20T. Rein1.3311118113P. Kubat3.25681151
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