TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13012907
Played Aug 25Finished
Lukas Jirka
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
112115112––––
Petr Kubat
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:27 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeLukas Jirka to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Jirka above · Petr Kubat below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 42 set 3, 11-2 — our read held Lukas Jirka at 62.5%
42 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Jirka 3–0 Petr Kubat Petr Kubat has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:27What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Jirka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Jirka
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jirka 1561 vs Kubat 1406
Jirka
Correct
both rated, 155 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jirka 40% vs Kubat 60%
Kubat
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jirka 50% vs Kubat 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jirka +1 · Kubat +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Jirka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubat form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJirka 1.50 / Kubat 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Jirka)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13012907
Jirka1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As favourite59% won 16 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Kubat2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 15 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back11% 3 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeJirka3wins
AwayKubat0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderJirka leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJirka100%3 of 3
AwayKubatn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jirka3Kubat0n = 3Jirka took 3 of 3
S2Jirka2Kubat1n = 3Jirka took 2 of 3
S3Jirka3Kubat0n = 3Jirka took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricJirkaKubatJ − KBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match40.024.7+15.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJirkaKubatBasisWin rate · lifetime98 / 189 vs 88 / 24151.9%36.5%98 / 189 vs 88 / 241Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JirkaJirka 1.50/Kubat 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Jirka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jirka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 25 · 19:25L. Jirka—1111113P. Kubat—2520
WAug 6 · 20:20L. Jirka—1111113P. Kubat—8850
WNov 18 · 22:10L. Jirka—119149113P. Kubat—411121162
L. Jirka10
LAug 25 · 22:25L. Jirka1.57145571J. Cousin2.25121111113WAug 25 · 20:55M. Boltik1.61561171L. Jirka2.2011119113WAug 25 · 20:25J. Cousin2.00871171L. Jirka1.7311117113WAug 18 · 22:10J. Cousin1.8313111051L. Jirka1.8315312113LAug 18 · 20:55M. Boltik1.83311115113L. Jirka1.8311171172LAug 18 · 20:25J. Slavicek1.73711119113L. Jirka2.0011871182LAug 18 · 19:25L. Jirka1.731397131J. Cousin2.00111111153WAug 6 · 21:55L. Jirka1.551111113J. Cousin2.307860WAug 6 · 20:20P. Kubat2.388850L. Jirka1.531111113WAug 6 · 19:50T. Rein3.257890L. Jirka1.331111113
P. Kubat10
WAug 27 · 17:25P. Kubat1.9114711143P. Vodal1.8012119121WAug 27 · 16:50P. Kubat2.1011119113P. Vodal1.67741181LAug 27 · 15:20A. Jr2.7551111113P. Kubat1.40119661LAug 27 · 14:50T. Rein1.331111113P. Kubat3.253540LAug 25 · 21:55M. Boltik1.57149118123P. Kubat2.251211411102LAug 25 · 21:25P. Kubat2.255990J. Cousin1.571111113LAug 25 · 19:55M. Boltik1.731111119113P. Kubat2.0019131142WAug 14 · 13:30P. Kubat1.36119611113A. Jr3.0061111292LAug 14 · 12:50P. Kubat2.0011126562P. Vodal1.739101111113LAug 6 · 20:20P. Kubat2.388850L. Jirka1.531111113
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