TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12374590
Played Aug 6Finished
Lukas Jirka
Home
1.55
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117118116––––
Jean-Baptiste Cousin
Away
2.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Jirka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Jirka above · Jean-Baptiste Cousin below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 54 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Lukas Jirka at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Jirka 7–9 Jean-Baptiste Cousin Lukas Jirka has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:26What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (60%)
Jirka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-9 in 16
Cousin
Wrong
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jirka 1590 vs Cousin 1403
Jirka
Correct
both rated, 187 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jirka 60% vs Cousin 40%
Jirka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jirka 50% vs Cousin 20%
Jirka
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jirka +2 · Cousin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Jirka) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJirka 1.55 / Cousin 2.30
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Jirka)+0.5pp
TT Cup · #12374590
Jirka1.55
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 13 of 22
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Cousin2.30
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 25 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back30% 13 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJirka4wins
AwayCousin6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCousin leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJirka40%2 of 5
AwayCousin60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jirka5Cousin5n = 10split evenly
S2Jirka5Cousin5n = 10split evenly
S3Jirka6Cousin4n = 10Jirka took 6 of 10
S4Jirka3Cousin4n = 7Cousin took 4 of 7
S5Jirka1Cousin4n = 5Cousin took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJirkaCousinJ − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.537.8−0.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJirkaCousinBasisWin rate · lifetime101 / 195 vs 225 / 42051.8%53.6%101 / 195 vs 225 / 420Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JirkaJirka 1.55/Cousin 2.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.2%
Jirka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jirka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 6 · 18:50L. Jirka—11511482J. Cousin—911811113
WJun 18 · 22:00L. Jirka—115812113J. Cousin—411111062
LJun 18 · 18:20L. Jirka—7990J. Cousin—1111113
LMar 8 · 12:20L. Jirka—8640J. Cousin—1111113
WDec 3 · 19:50L. Jirka—1111113J. Cousin—6990
WDec 2 · 20:25L. Jirka—81111113J. Cousin—115881
LNov 30 · 11:20L. Jirka—11611772J. Cousin—211711113
WNov 20 · 22:45L. Jirka—9111393J. Cousin—1191181
LNov 20 · 20:10L. Jirka—11117962J. Cousin—251111113
LAug 28 · 22:05L. Jirka—71111692J. Cousin—116411113
L. Jirka10
LAug 25 · 22:25L. Jirka1.57145571J. Cousin2.25121111113WAug 25 · 20:55M. Boltik1.61561171L. Jirka2.2011119113WAug 25 · 20:25J. Cousin2.00871171L. Jirka1.7311117113WAug 25 · 19:25L. Jirka1.501111113P. Kubat2.502520WAug 18 · 22:10J. Cousin1.8313111051L. Jirka1.8315312113LAug 18 · 20:55M. Boltik1.83311115113L. Jirka1.8311171172LAug 18 · 20:25J. Slavicek1.73711119113L. Jirka2.0011871182LAug 18 · 19:25L. Jirka1.731397131J. Cousin2.00111111153WAug 6 · 20:20P. Kubat2.388850L. Jirka1.531111113WAug 6 · 19:50T. Rein3.257890L. Jirka1.331111113
J. Cousin10
WAug 25 · 22:25L. Jirka1.57145571J. Cousin2.25121111113WAug 25 · 21:25P. Kubat2.255990J. Cousin1.571111113LAug 25 · 20:25J. Cousin2.00871171L. Jirka1.7311117113WAug 25 · 18:55M. Boltik1.5381080J. Cousin2.381112113WAug 23 · 13:58V. Koutnik1.8381181192J. Cousin1.83119118113LAug 23 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.91111110113J. Cousin1.80971221LAug 23 · 12:25B. Budik1.761112113J. Cousin1.9051080LAug 23 · 11:25J. Cousin1.801111108102P. Vodal1.91961211123LAug 18 · 22:10J. Cousin1.8313111051L. Jirka1.8315312113WAug 18 · 19:25L. Jirka1.731397131J. Cousin2.00111111153
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