TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13015445
Played Aug 25Finished
Lukas Jirka
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1412511511711––
Jean-Baptiste Cousin
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:55 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeLukas Jirka to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Jirka above · Jean-Baptiste Cousin below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 76 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Lukas Jirka at 54.3%
76 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Jirka 10–10 Jean-Baptiste Cousin Dead even across their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:55What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Jirka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-10 in 20
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jirka 1580 vs Cousin 1419
Jirka
Wrong
both rated, 161 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jirka 80% vs Cousin 60%
Jirka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jirka 70% vs Cousin 30%
Jirka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jirka +4 · Cousin +1
Jirka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Jirka) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cousin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJirka 1.57 / Cousin 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Jirka)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13015445
Jirka1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As favourite59% won 16 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Cousin2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 32 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back31% 17 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJirka6wins
AwayCousin4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderJirka leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJirka71.4%5 of 7
AwayCousin66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jirka7Cousin3n = 10Jirka took 7 of 10
S2Jirka4Cousin6n = 10Cousin took 6 of 10
S3Jirka5Cousin5n = 10split evenly
S4Jirka4Cousin2n = 6Jirka took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJirkaCousinJ − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.935.5+0.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJirkaCousinBasisWin rate · lifetime100 / 191 vs 240 / 44752.4%53.7%100 / 191 vs 240 / 447Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JirkaJirka 1.57/Cousin 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Jirka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cousin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 20:25L. Jirka—11117113J. Cousin—871171
WAug 18 · 22:10L. Jirka—15312113J. Cousin—13111051
LAug 18 · 19:25L. Jirka—1397131J. Cousin—111111153
WAug 6 · 21:55L. Jirka—1111113J. Cousin—7860
LAug 6 · 18:50L. Jirka—11511482J. Cousin—911811113
WJun 18 · 22:00L. Jirka—115812113J. Cousin—411111062
LJun 18 · 18:20L. Jirka—7990J. Cousin—1111113
LMar 8 · 12:20L. Jirka—8640J. Cousin—1111113
WDec 3 · 19:50L. Jirka—1111113J. Cousin—6990
WDec 2 · 20:25L. Jirka—81111113J. Cousin—115881
L. Jirka10
WAug 25 · 20:55M. Boltik1.61561171L. Jirka2.2011119113WAug 25 · 20:25J. Cousin2.00871171L. Jirka1.7311117113WAug 25 · 19:25L. Jirka1.501111113P. Kubat2.502520WAug 18 · 22:10J. Cousin1.8313111051L. Jirka1.8315312113LAug 18 · 20:55M. Boltik1.83311115113L. Jirka1.8311171172LAug 18 · 20:25J. Slavicek1.73711119113L. Jirka2.0011871182LAug 18 · 19:25L. Jirka1.731397131J. Cousin2.00111111153WAug 6 · 21:55L. Jirka1.551111113J. Cousin2.307860WAug 6 · 20:20P. Kubat2.388850L. Jirka1.531111113WAug 6 · 19:50T. Rein3.257890L. Jirka1.331111113
J. Cousin10
WAug 25 · 21:25P. Kubat2.255990J. Cousin1.571111113LAug 25 · 20:25J. Cousin2.00871171L. Jirka1.7311117113WAug 25 · 18:55M. Boltik1.5381080J. Cousin2.381112113WAug 23 · 13:58V. Koutnik1.8381181192J. Cousin1.83119118113LAug 23 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.91111110113J. Cousin1.80971221LAug 23 · 12:25B. Budik1.761112113J. Cousin1.9051080LAug 23 · 11:25J. Cousin1.801111108102P. Vodal1.91961211123LAug 18 · 22:10J. Cousin1.8313111051L. Jirka1.8315312113WAug 18 · 19:25L. Jirka1.731397131J. Cousin2.00111111153LAug 6 · 21:55L. Jirka1.551111113J. Cousin2.307860
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