TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12454675
Played Aug 18Finished
Martin Boltik
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
311111117511117
Lukas Jirka
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Jirka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Boltik above · Lukas Jirka below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 78 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Lukas Jirka at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Martin Boltik 2–2 Lukas Jirka Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:30What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Jirka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Boltik 1568 vs Jirka 1568
Boltik
Correct
both rated, 0 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Boltik 80% vs Jirka 60%
Boltik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Boltik 50% vs Jirka 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Boltik +1 · Jirka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Boltik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Boltik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBoltik 1.83 / Jirka 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Boltik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12454675
Boltik1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Jirka1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeBoltik2wins
AwayJirka2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBoltikn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayJirka50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Boltik0Jirka4n = 4Jirka took 4 of 4
S2Boltik3Jirka1n = 4Boltik took 3 of 4
S3Boltik2Jirka2n = 4split evenly
S4Boltik1Jirka2n = 3Jirka took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricBoltikJirkaB − JBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set04−4of 4Avg pointsper match32.236.8−4.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBoltikJirkaBasisWin rate · lifetime64 / 108 vs 96 / 18559.3%51.9%64 / 108 vs 96 / 185Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.136.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoltikBoltik 1.83/Jirka 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Boltik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Boltik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LApr 25 · 20:55M. Boltik—511361L. Jirka—11611113
WNov 8 · 21:50M. Boltik—51112113L. Jirka—1141051
LFeb 1 · 19:50M. Boltik—8830L. Jirka—1111113
WJan 10 · 19:50M. Boltik—711116113L. Jirka—11771192
M. Boltik10
WAug 25 · 21:55M. Boltik1.57149118123P. Kubat2.251211411102LAug 25 · 20:55M. Boltik1.61561171L. Jirka2.2011119113WAug 25 · 19:55M. Boltik1.731111119113P. Kubat2.0019131142LAug 25 · 18:55M. Boltik1.5381080J. Cousin2.381112113WAug 18 · 22:40J. Slavicek1.5388111542M. Boltik2.381111713113WAug 18 · 19:55M. Boltik1.8311711113J. Cousin1.83611791LAug 18 · 18:55M. Boltik2.38911521J. Slavicek1.5311611113WAug 2 · 21:54M. Boltik1.44511911113R. Zeman2.6311611472WAug 2 · 20:20T. Jr3.256960M. Boltik1.331111113WAug 2 · 19:50Z. Dusek2.6381380M. Boltik1.441115113
L. Jirka10
LAug 25 · 22:25L. Jirka1.57145571J. Cousin2.25121111113WAug 25 · 20:55M. Boltik1.61561171L. Jirka2.2011119113WAug 25 · 20:25J. Cousin2.00871171L. Jirka1.7311117113WAug 25 · 19:25L. Jirka1.501111113P. Kubat2.502520WAug 18 · 22:10J. Cousin1.8313111051L. Jirka1.8315312113LAug 18 · 20:25J. Slavicek1.73711119113L. Jirka2.0011871182LAug 18 · 19:25L. Jirka1.731397131J. Cousin2.00111111153WAug 6 · 21:55L. Jirka1.551111113J. Cousin2.307860WAug 6 · 20:20P. Kubat2.388850L. Jirka1.531111113WAug 6 · 19:50T. Rein3.257890L. Jirka1.331111113
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