TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12454485
Played Aug 18Finished
Martin Boltik
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116711117119––
Jean-Baptiste Cousin
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:40 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Boltik to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Boltik above · Jean-Baptiste Cousin below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 73 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Martin Boltik at 56.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Martin Boltik 3–3 Jean-Baptiste Cousin Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:40What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Cousin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Boltik 1568 vs Cousin 1488
Boltik
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Boltik 60% vs Cousin 80%
Cousin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Boltik 50% vs Cousin 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Boltik -1 · Cousin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Boltik) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cousin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBoltik 1.83 / Cousin 1.83
Signal prob.56% / 45%
Edge (Boltik)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #12454485
Boltik1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Cousin1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeBoltik3wins
AwayCousin3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBoltik75%3 of 4
AwayCousinn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Boltik4Cousin2n = 6Boltik took 4 of 6
S2Boltik5Cousin1n = 6Boltik took 5 of 6
S3Boltik1Cousin5n = 6Cousin took 5 of 6
S4Boltik4Cousin2n = 6Boltik took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricBoltikCousinB − CBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match43.041.3+1.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBoltikCousinBasisWin rate · lifetime64 / 108 vs 240 / 44759.3%53.7%64 / 108 vs 240 / 447Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.138.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoltikBoltik 1.83/Cousin 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.5%
Boltik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Boltik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 18 · 19:55M. Boltik—11711113J. Cousin—611791
WFeb 6 · 23:45M. Boltik—121111103J. Cousin—1081371
LFeb 6 · 19:55M. Boltik—9115101J. Cousin—11411123
LJan 18 · 19:50M. Boltik—81481182J. Cousin—1112115113
LJan 2 · 22:35M. Boltik—111116772J. Cousin—991811113
WJan 2 · 19:50M. Boltik—11115113J. Cousin—961151
M. Boltik10
WAug 25 · 21:55M. Boltik1.57149118123P. Kubat2.251211411102LAug 25 · 20:55M. Boltik1.61561171L. Jirka2.2011119113WAug 25 · 19:55M. Boltik1.731111119113P. Kubat2.0019131142LAug 25 · 18:55M. Boltik1.5381080J. Cousin2.381112113WAug 18 · 22:40J. Slavicek1.5388111542M. Boltik2.381111713113WAug 18 · 20:55M. Boltik1.83311115113L. Jirka1.8311171172LAug 18 · 18:55M. Boltik2.38911521J. Slavicek1.5311611113WAug 2 · 21:54M. Boltik1.44511911113R. Zeman2.6311611472WAug 2 · 20:20T. Jr3.256960M. Boltik1.331111113WAug 2 · 19:50Z. Dusek2.6381380M. Boltik1.441115113
J. Cousin10
WAug 25 · 22:25L. Jirka1.57145571J. Cousin2.25121111113WAug 25 · 21:25P. Kubat2.255990J. Cousin1.571111113LAug 25 · 20:25J. Cousin2.00871171L. Jirka1.7311117113WAug 25 · 18:55M. Boltik1.5381080J. Cousin2.381112113WAug 23 · 13:58V. Koutnik1.8381181192J. Cousin1.83119118113LAug 23 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.91111110113J. Cousin1.80971221LAug 23 · 12:25B. Budik1.761112113J. Cousin1.9051080LAug 23 · 11:25J. Cousin1.801111108102P. Vodal1.91961211123LAug 22 · 13:54A. Jr1.8011116113J. Cousin1.91891181LAug 22 · 12:55J. Cousin2.102470J. Sebl1.671111113
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